Looking over my portfolio over the weekend I noticed MELA has a CC on tues.3/5 after the market closes. I can see that after the last stock offering last month @$1.30ps that there was a slight selloff but the pps has hovered around $1.5 [ net positive ].
I can make a case for upside movement if management can meet or exceed expectations. My problem is that with such a low share price the movement will be minimized by the share price. Most MM will be limited by the sub$5 pps price entry point limit, limiting those that could enter some fund monies. The retail investor has been played by managements lack of financial savvy [ position stated in past posts ] and may be reluctanat to play. Most have watched the pps drop over the last few quarters and will be reluctant to increase positions and those on the sidelines [if any ] are a question at this time. The latest players who got in at $1.3 [ aprox 20%of float] may choose to take some profit off the table and sell into any rally.
My thoughts are that we might see a 20-35% upside during the next quarter on meeting or exceeding expectations, higher if shorts decide to cover and move on. The downside, not meeting expectations , might lead to a 15-25% downside to a sub $1.3 level.
This is of course my opinion whats yours?.
Good analysis dwoods and I will agree that there may be a slight increase in the pps if he meets his goal but I don't see a significant one until he gets some significant rev coming in. I had originally guess around 675 units at an average use of four per unit per day for break even with their current burn but that was prior to the 10 mil loan which will now have to be factored in.
From his last CC, he still sounded positive on meeting his goal. Although the 200 U.S. may be achievable with signings from the current winter Derm meetings, the 75 Germany look like they may be a short based on the present Melafinder placements. He has said that he is shooting for 700 by the end of Q1 2014, we shall see.
I would agree with most of your conclusions. We are unquestionably at a tipping point related to the future direction of this stock. Over the next several months, the stock will either move up or down sharply depending on Dr. Gulfo's status report tomorrow. We have just completed a very,very costly round of dilution and financing. Soft and vague commentary tomorrow by Gulfo and we begin a slide below $1.30. He must show substantial progress in placements. He must show real progress in usage and he must show a substantial increase in backlog as a function of the AAD. We shall see what we shall see.