I've gotten out of all my short positions. This market has lost all credibility with me. I'm out of everthing... nothing but cash for me from here on out.
I'm going to cyber-kick the next dumbass who says this is a bull-market. This is NOT a bull market. This is an irrational market. This nation is in a recession. Inflation is getting out of hand. The dollar is sinking in value faster than my short ETF's. Real Estate has fallen in value more than the last 40 years, and it still has a way to go.
But, the market still climbs. Stocks still go up. Ridiculous. Absolutely freaking ridiculous. How do you invest on emotion and irrationality and make money?
Fundamentals mean nothing anymore. The government is lying through its teeth. The numbers they post are rigged and false. Helicopter Ben is printing money as fast as he can. I guess this market will be like the band on the deck of the Titanic... playing its happy tune until the whole thing goes under.
You can't trade this market on fundamentals. You "invest" on fundamentals and "hope." With regards to your entire negative list....The market doesn't lie. Is is what it is. Price is what counts in trading not fundamentals. Learn to interpret what the charts are telling you in the wake of the economic crisis...Possibility # 1...we're in a bearish wedge. #2 We're on the virge of a break out #3 It's probably #1
Well I believe whatever will happen, (mkt up/down) we shall know shortly base on Market Time Cycles. I love TEchnical Analysis, I study, read about it and read what others have to say on the matter. Besides, the Bullish slant in this weeks cover of Barron's, (The Bull tipping his toe in the mkt and believeing everything was fine). In the tech anal. section the Technician brought up Time Cycles...here's I am paraphrasing what he had to say...From the S&P high in Octo to the Jan low =70 Days, from the Jan low to end of next week Friday, and folloing week =70 days...and therefore, as we end the 2nd 70day move, we shall see which way the S&P's go..Personaly, I believe down and are in the B wave of an A, B, C Corrective Pattern --A the first initial wave down, B the retrace wave up, followed by a longer wave C (longer than A) down..we have retraced about 50% in both the S&P's and Dow from their lows. Howvere, if it retraces above these retrace level hold for 2 day above the retrace or 2% above the retrace, if it holds sell your DXD/SDS and wait for the Golden Ration of 61.8% retrace and Buy your DXD/SDS their, (if you want me to work out the MAth I will).
I heard on the Bloomberg news today and it's on the front of YHOO Finance that 23 states have massive holes in their budgets..$billions and billions of dollars..NYY is thinking about taxing the internet..How come this is not on CNBC this is a MAJOR STORY..WTF!!
Agree, with what everyone has said..I do however, want to add that I believe we are in the "EYE" of the storm. Right now the mkt is saying "Bad News Yeah I know, I have heard it already same Dung different day". Unfortunatley, this Dung (CDO's, CMO's, Subprime, Alt-A, Housing Foreclosures, Student Loan Defaults, Car repo's, Credit Card Max-outs, Treating your house like an ATM, High Energy/Food Prices) is being reported everyday is starting to add up, and pretty soon (November) this mkt will crash. I think 2009 is going to be AWFUL!!!, and quite frankly we need to do some serious house cleaning and if that means the economy goes south, so that we are stronger in the long-term then so be it. This economy is a Big-Boys Mkt. people make and loss money. It's not hey I made a bunch of money, then oops I lost money..Where's the Gov't to bail me out, (and the Gov't sucks too F!ing Liberals). If you can't deal with the losses then get out. Again this is a Big-Boys mkt!!!If you go to the Fed site here's the link Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Instituitions is F!Ing Negative..DO they report that on CNBC, NOPE this is a F!ing crime that this is not reported and talked about more, and it's the Fed Lending programs that's keeping the mkt afloat. It's like patching a puncture wound with bubble gum and a band-aid. It's amazing watching these Nimrods on CNBC one day the world is crashing and the next day Pisani, Marie B. and the whole crew are like, "Hey the waters fine, c'mon in"--are you F!ing crazy!!! This is bad..For DXD or SDS I think they are Short, Intermediate, and Long-Term plays, depends how you want to trade them..Best of luck, sorry for the rant, it's just sad/frustarting to see so many people being led to the financial slaughter and they don't even see it coming..here's the link:
I like that: Eye of the Storm! They tell me that when the storm comes around and the winds whip in from a new direction everything that was loosened in the storm's first advance gets leveled. Walk by faith, not sight.
Agree with cmeg. Imo US is screwed but decoupling has begun.Global growth picking up slack for now and fed backstop gives perception we won't fall off a cliff and theoretical recovery which imo won't happen but slow our descent.This time around imo a recovery can only happen if we produce what we consume like make our clothing, auto's, tv's..etc
It's tough to be long dxd in this environment cuz of global exposure. IMO gonna have to start seeing cracks in global growth to get below 12k again which I believe will show up by 3rd qtr. it's most domestic stocks are 3 banks that will not be allowed to fail. Wanna short retail? WMT will thrive offsetting HD. Aig and amex may be stable couple qtrs and people pay vz and T bills with stimulus check who knows.
It's restaurant is MCD, kinda recession proof with 65% revenues overseas and on a tear. Imo to tough to hold for more than a day.
When bric starts to show cracks I will confidently hold long term til 10k. Imo around 4qtr but this market may be stupid enough to take us back to 14k..GLTU
Right pew. Wrong church.....You are right about almost everything you wrote about.
Now consider this. The DOW components no longer are valued on the basis of national sales. They are international. Thus, their revenues are based on currency, on foreign sales, cheaper foreign labor, etc and I could go on.
International business is still quite good. Don't invest with blinders on.
That's the simple explanation. It's far more complex though.