could supply some good insight about todays sell off.
Didn't really find a whole lot. I actually saw a large gap in the usual big volume when the market started to break in the mid afternoon.
My thoughts are this, and please leave comments as I am interested.
I am wondering what is diff about this market right now. I have seen it get near intra day lows then take right back off fast.
I was trying to figure out what was so diff. Seems like something is actually buying at large volume. We have not seen this for a long time. Usuaully we have seen the "new bear market rally" that lasts for no more the 2 days or 3.
Something rubs me in a diff way in this market right now. Today was suppose to be a big sell off. You know, when shorts sink their teeth in and longs smell panic. But seems like people didn't sell and shorts kept sinking their teeth in.
My outcome was did the big boys stop buying and lower spread out their levels in order to buy cheaper shares? Look at this afternoon. Did anyone see how fast the market picked up after it reached the days low? Then hopped around and then settled close to it?
Doesn't the market usually tank when the new intra day low sets in to that magnitued. When was the last time you saw the marke rally back up that fast close to open after such new intra day lows so late in the afternoon.
I'm popping the popcorn as we speak. It's going to be a great next two days. The big Ali-Frazier fights are about to explodes.
GL all, it will be an action packed next two days.
FYI, I sold half my long position near highs this morning. I'm waiting to see what unfolds.
History doesn't always repeat. Look at a chart of the Dow from the early 1980s. That was the beginning of rates moving substancially lower and that was when the real money was made.
Rates will go through the roof, but that in no way means the markets or the economy will crash. Long term the markets and the economy are a fuction of money supply.
This is historical dats of the prime interest rate.
This is a chart of the DOW
In 1975 the prime rate was at about 8% average and the dow at about 650
In 1979 the prime rate was at about 13% average and the DOW was at 1000
The increase in monet supply over rides everything and it will again no matter what inflation does. That data proves it over and over again.
Massive inflation is a market killer. If we get that, you better be nimble and get out when all of these assets rise like hell due to it because once it gets out of control, rates will go through the roof.
You might want to look at this article on Ultrashorts and shorts...
Talks a lot about the MA of these ETFs and what the long term consequences will be for holders of these ETfs.
This is what I see different in the market.
I believe that all TA is simply human emotion put on a graph. Humans are creatures of emotion and habit,the emotion drives the behavior which becomes a habit. Therefore what a market does can be predicted by reading the chart as the markets run off of emotion.
On 12/01 the DOW formed a higher bottom that signaled a switch in emotion.
On 12/05 a 10 day 20 day cross took place that comfirmed it.
On 12/08 the DOW gapped through the major down trend line and ran up to the 50 day, which is a emotional sell point.
Right now a war is taking place between the 50 day sellers and the down trend line breakout buyers. With a 20day 50 day cross about to take place.
Simply put the fear is out of the market and it will take an event to put it back.
We will get our "event"...we will wake up one morning and India and Pakistan will be at war (they have nukes), and Israel will have made a massive strike on Iran (wouldn't you?). Those events, coupled with the world wide depression that is forming, will send us to horrifyingly low levels very quickly. We will stay there a long time. JMHO
Its all in the waves. We went straight down for about 55 days. A 20 day countertrend rally should not be unexpected. If you're looking for great analysis, try this guy:
Dumped my overnight short [FAZ] for a small gain and held my longs - FAS TNA
Indexes breaking out of a ten day base on base pattern.Todays pullback looks like the handle on a cup n' handle pattern.
We move higher.