Can someone here, anyone, give me one reason to buy a stock?
I've been 100% short since the start of January and posted when I entered my positions.
If I had long positions can anyone give me one reason not to sell them?
Not only are things obviously horrible but everyone is lying. The President (and President-elect), Congress, the Senate, CEO's, Fund managers, Main Stream News media, the Federal Reserve, The Treausry. Do you have any idea how long it is going to take to get that trust back?
Ride the waves. But, be prepared for the Ultimate North Shore 40 footer that's coming. It's deflation and it will destroy everything and everyone in it's path. You know it's coming, you can see it building out there...be ready. Those who can't see it are blind and fools...Truth.
I have been tradeing for some 20 years now. I am not great but usually can hold my own. Having said this I saw this tidal wave coming and got out of everything long and started playing etf's short last year and did alright. One post here came similiar to my thoughts prior to this explosion and that was if we go into a recession, which one was the worst from peak to trough and that was an estimated 50%. I took the dow at 14200 and thought that this one HAS to come down at least 50% to 7,200 and so I shorted. Now we are in a traders markets so you find a range and trade from within. I am still only utilizing, at most, 50% of my money with 50% in cash, just in case. I buy at about 10% at each purchase leaveing me room to average down.
Now, I must admit that there are more clouds ahead for sure, But there are always ideas too. Give you one I heard of... On Obamas desk to sign, will be a 2.9% fixed interest rate loan for home buyers. There are many more. The dollar can be, and will be devalued that is why I am also short the dollar symbol (UDN)
What I am trying to say is that the US is not over as we know and we will make it thru this one but its not going to happen in 6 to 12 months. This one will last longer and within this time span will be opportunities to trade back and forth.
I agree,this is no time to buying any stocks.
I also agree that after any hot air inaugral related rally the market will probably tank - and hard.
But there will be some opportunities for short term speculative optimism.
Namely Obama's big,how to fix everything,nationally broadcast speech before Congress.That will probably come the day after his inauguration.He definately wants to give folks the impression he's not wasting any time.Then you get the debate about his proposal and the votes in the house and senate.The market might feed on that for a few weeks.
On the economy I tend to agree with you.Akso agree we're getting splattered with B.S. from all angles.But I would caution against blind cynicism.
One reason is Paul Volcker.
I happened to catch him on a PBS documentary last weekend about the financial crises.
He sure ain't gonna be a cheerleader.
If there's only one guy disciplined and cold blooded enough to do what has to be done it's Volcker.Volcker has absolutely no qualms about imposing short and intermediate term pain in exchange for long term gain.
I think he's the reason Obama has been talking down expectations.The economy is in a heap of trouble and if Obama follows Volcker's advice then the real pain has only just begun.In other words,the only cause for optimism is the hope that Obama will now allow the economy to get even worse in exchange for the austerity that restores some health.
Meanwhile,I'm surfing the waves.Todays bounce off support correlated with the VIX bouncing off resistance at 55. So the panic level is down from Nov when the VIX double topped at 80.
Support for the Vix AT 46 - 43 and 38.If we double bottom at 38 I'm all in short.
Max - Great great analysis. You've really simplified where the market is headed. The VIX is the key, once it bottoms at 37-38, load up on all shorts. The 200 day chart of the VIX and DJI shows as clear as day what you are talking about with the double tops and bottoms.
The guess is that the VIX double bottom would occur ~ 1 month after the last bottom which was Jan 6, so the next bottom should be approx Feb 6, give or take a week. The probablilty is great that it will occur at some pt around there. Charts usually tell the whole story.
Ride the rally now since support is at 8000.
Keep up the great posts.
Both of you are true genuises, listen we have to play wall streets stupid game on these fake 5 day bounces. They will give the fake 325 bill tarp a fake bounce tomorrow, they will give obamas hope speech a fake bounce on Monday. They are trying to preserve the retirement accounts for millions of Americans. They are trying to soften the blow by claiming that they know businesses are losing 90% of profit and growth. They are full of $hit. Just play the fake bounce till they can't fool or fake it anymore. Let the markets bottom which is not 8k but a drastic slap in the face of flat 7k. Yes shocker. But it's time to stop the b.s.