Factory Orders Released on 6/3/2009 10:00:00 AM For April, 2009
Factory Orders - M/M change Previous -0.9 % Consensus 1.1 % Consensus Range -0.2 % to 1.6 %
Market Consensus Before Announcement Factory orders fell 0.9 percent in March showing an even mix between a 0.8 percent decline in durables (second estimate) and a 1.0 percent decline in nondurables. More recently, durables orders for April rebounded 1.9 percent in April, following a revised 2.1 percent drop in March. The latest durables number will make for a boost in overall new factory orders in April unless there is an unexpected plunge in nondurables orders-which is not likely given recent price hikes for oil.
ISM Non-Mfg Index Released on 6/3/2009 10:00:00 AM For May, 2009
Composite Index - Level Previous 43.7 Consensus 45.0 Consensus Range 44.0 to 47.0
Market Consensus Before Announcement The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey rose nearly 3 points in April to 43.7. This improvement may continue in May as the new orders index in April jumped more than 8 points to 47.0, almost reaching the breakeven point.
We might beat consensus but even if we do, don't expect wall street to like it.
I sense we are over the free fall recovery re stocking and stimulus boost.
I would feel going forward(July-Dec) will continue it's slow decline.
May and June are iffy months.
Gov is cracking down on stimulus spending and wants answers. You will see more grand jury testimonies in the upcoming months. This should put a stop to the BS tactics banks and FED have been instituting.
I pointed out TALF is getting more attractive in my other post. This tells me institutions are looking to diversify and find the gov aid attractive. Equities are over blown right now. We are above historical P/E multiples and we all know substantial growth is not going to happen for years.
All we need is one more scare to set us back again. GMAC looks like a likely canidate. Rumors have been building for weeks now since they needed more cash.
The Auto bankruptcies are going to dampen any potential growth we were expecting but will not notice for a few months. Ex Employees and corp spending doesn't show that instantly. Their suppliers will hurt as well as their suppliers employees and etc etc.
The only thing that gives me the slightest hope is one of our Private equity funds just closed a deal using bank financing. It was almost 50/50 equity and debt. That was positive but there aren't any others lined up. I think mortgage rates & treasury rates hold the key, banks nor investors want this many new loans being done at these rates. Inflation is going to hit hard and fast.