I closed my longs last week before we hit 12K and have one short (DXD), albeit a very small position.
With the Fed and media doing all they can to prop up stocks I am at a loss at what else to do. Until I see very strong signs of a market correction I am largely sitting on the sidelines. Going long on anything right now seems like spitting in the wind. Only my humble opinion.
"this time will be no different than in Iran. More Mullahs. More restrictions. More anti-American sentiment. This is a disaster."
What is happening in Iran right now?
How about Tunisia?
Why do these demonstraters all look the same?
I think this event is much more complex than a replay of the Iranian revolution.Arabs see what's going on in Iran - poverty - and they clearly don't want that.These demonstrators are all making the same issues front and center - jobs,education,an end to repression and corruption.Whoever takes power in all these evolving situations will still have to govern.
I'm no fan of Turkey's chnage in foriegn policy.But the Islamic party that runs Turkey has to govern.And they've done so - by keeping Islamism out of most policy making.I think that is the model most of these demonstraters are looking to emulate.The won't be great friends of the US or Israel but they'll be more conerned with other things that require international cooperation - not isolation.
Looks like Iran, circa 1979. Remember the "students" that overthrew the Shah? How horrible he was made out to be in the media, yet the students were all freedom fighters. Flash back to today. Nothing has changed, even the mindset of our current sitting president who's taking -- and I predict will continue to take -- the same failed steps as President Carter. Make no mistake: this is an anti-USA, anti-western, anti-Israel protect and the "students" this time will be no different than in Iran. More Mullahs. More restrictions. More anti-American sentiment. This is a disaster.
From reports on BBC, Forbes, Daily News, and others, it sounds like the elite have left the country. Upper class families are trying to stem looting.
Its a world class nightmare in Eqypt. Also, reports in of protesting in Yemen, Jordan, and Albania. Recall Tunisia's government fell a week or so ago.
The middle east is changing. We will see where it all ends...
God bless the innocents over there!
Great comments. Pleasure reading. I still am sticking to a 8-12% pullback of the S&P, at least as much or more for the NAZ and less for the DOW because of the perceived safety of large caps. February will be a nasty,nasty month. I predict we open higher Monday, briefly, before selling off. I'll add more shorts in the morning (emerging markets, Brazil) and God forgive, may dip my toes into some gold.
I've been reading the arab and muslim media for years.I used to be limited to english language press but thanks to MEMRI [Mid East Media Project] articles,speeches,interviews,radio and television programs are all translated verbatim.
Yes,there are LOTS of fanatic whackos in the arab/muslim world.But for anyone exposed to the constant diet of western reporting the shocker is how many liberals are active in the arab world.
The bottom the world over remains the same.On balance,human beings are not interested in blowing themselves up or living under the deprivation of politically radical states.They want jobs - jobs - jobs - some personal freedom and peace.Specific cultural identities aside,we are ALL much more alike than unlike.
Let's see what next week brings.Perhaps we do see a longer series of disruptions that put a scare into global markets.
But on balance I'm with Nenner who called for an oil pullback this week that reverses next week.
If he's right commodities should start driving this market higher again.
Max, you may be right, but I think you might be too forgiving of the US markets. RUT and NDQ did give some back, but added even more just as quickly on the backs of AAPL and NFLX most recently.
What concerns me, although heartened by the burgeoning of TRUE? democracies in the region is the short term unrest that will follow.
US and other western or Old Europe countries would fight to keep Suez open, but to what end and what result when most of those are tapped after 10 years of GWOT in the region.
Couple all of that with the headline risks that will continue, and as you say, the media will NOT focus on the positive, Austerity is reported as a failure on Bloomberg today, it all makes for a nasty short term Macro environment.
Be careful out there!
You're probably right.This is the excuse to kick of a correction.But keep in mind the RUT and Nasdaq have already given some back before today.So any further correcting could be over within a few sessions.
IMO the "Blue Thumbs" made all other arabs ask "Why not us too?" The whole arab world has been infected with Democracy Fever.How it will turn out is impossible to predict.But the developments in Tunisia and Egypt are encouraging.These are not islamist movements.These arethe people the western media never show - young,middle and working class arab/muslims - more like than unlike you and I - they're modern and they just seem to want decent govt.In Egypt the nacient leaders appear to be Mohammed Al Baradei and Ayman Nour - modern and democratic.Ragardless how islamists try and exploit these developments one thing is now for certain - there is another class of people in the arab world we've never been shown before.Modern,educated and seeking to create societies not so different from our own.I believe they are the true majority - been there the whole time but ignored by the western media too busy looking for islamist sensationalism.
Now they are stepping forward to take control of their societies.
Ahmadinijad is shaking in his shoes again...............