S&P hit 1326 the 2011 peak and a little over 1327 for awhile. Fed says no growth until 2014. While home sales activities pick up, but home sales price keeps falling. JPM went up on a miss. Yahoo went up only met. If this is last October, stocks will tank like a rock. Unbelievalbe optimistic mood that market is in. Everyone is convinced Ben will issue QE3 to continue rescuing the market so they just have to buy more to bank on that happen.
As of yesterday the SPX closed 5.37% above its 50 DMA. Closes >=5% above the 50 DMA happen about 9.4% of the time.
About 2.76% of the time it will close >= 7% above the 50 DMA.
About 0.68% of the time it will close >= 9% above the 50 DMA.
I haven't done a detailed analysis of these situations but I have noted that getting >=5% above the 50 DMA and continuing higher seems to occur most often when it is rebounding from a sharp selloff, not when it has been on an extended run. So the likelihood that it simply vaults higher from here without either treading water or at least pulling back a little seems low.
Yesterday' ES high was 1311.50. The overnight high was also 1311.50. The high so far is 1309.50 so I have not been able to get a look at the price ladder to see if serious selling will emerge at 1311.00 - 1312.00 again. If it does it is likely the market continues to at least stall in this area (SPX 1315-1316).
I have only one short position and the rest of longs are in the most boring airline stocks for over 18 months. It's a ponzi market allright. Anyway they spin in. Market was under 11000 when euro is this low.