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Walgreen Co. Message Board

  • jethromaven jethromaven Oct 5, 2005 12:58 PM Flag

    wlp/unh and wag

    wlp and unh, the two biggest, fastest growing, best managed and most profitable hmos in the business have both saddled up with wag... what a tremendous alliance for wag. jmho, but i expect numerous analysts with update their earnings models and issue "desk pounding buy" recommendations as they figure out what a jolt this will drive in terms of rx sales and store traffic/cross-selling opportunities.

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    • >> I do not believe you have the ability to do financial/market analysis. Your childish hatred for me also is clouding your mind. <<

      You must have me confused with someone else. What is it that makes you think I hate you? I don't think much of you, it's true, because you obviously have an agenda to push on this board and you do very little to back it up with facts. But I don't hate you.

      >> I wouldn't expect a person working in a slave shop isolated to constant interactions with moron customers about this cost this copay phone calls etc to have the ability to do gray financial analysis. <<

      Again, I'm not sure where you got this idea from, but I'm not a pharmacist. I'm a stockholder and a customer, but I don't work for WAG.

      Now that we've got that out of the way, I agree, let's have an open and civil discussion about the retail drug market. Let's assume for a second that you're right and that "total dollars spent on prescription drugs has increased by double digits for the last several years". (Personally, I'd prefer it if you'd cite your source for this so we can decide for ourselves whether it's a good statistic or not. I'd particularly like to see your source on the 15% projection for 2005 and agree to revisit the projection when the year's over and the real growth rate's known.)

      I believe the right way to look at WAG's (or any of their competitors) performance against market growth projections is not on the basis of same store sales, but total sales growth. Just as the overall market is probably not growing at the same rate in specific geographical areas, you shouldn't expect WAG's growth to occur at the same rate in all geographical areas. This is precisely why they're expanding their store base, to take advantage of underserved markets and markets where they believe they can effectively compete with CVS, RAD, LDG, etc.

      So if you look at total prescription sales growth you see a story that's pretty consistent with your estimate of overall market growth. On average over the last 12 months, WAG has grown total prescription sales by 13.2%. Unfortunately, CVS, RAD and LDG don't disclose the growth in their total prescription sales so we can't do a real comparison, but if you look at their prescription comps, they don't come close to WAG's (average 8.1% per month vs. 6.0% for CVS, -0.1% for RAD and -0.9% for LDG). So either WAG is growing faster than the market rate (contrary to your argument) or someone else is taking share away from everyone. You could argue that that's WMT, mail order, etc. but, again, I'd like to see some hard facts that support that.

      So on that basis, I think you can safely say that WAG's management has outperformed its competitors in the retail drug market and, subject to some more concrete estimates of prescription growth rates, that they're performing pretty well vs. the non-traditional competitors in the market as well.

      Not that I really believe I'll get them, but I look forward to you providing the sources for your market info so we can continue the discussion.

    • Hey Eliminate-intelligence, during the stike debacle, you stated repeatedly that you have no interest in Wag stock. You were pumping the union and cheering the strike.

      Now that everything you stood for has been flushed down the toilet, your true colors have emerged. It seems you DO have an interest in Wag stock.

      That gives me great pleasure. All the time you were bashing Wag during the strike, the price kept going up, up, up. You must have been completely miserable.

      You have admitted to being a complete and total failure in pharmacy. No dispute.

      You have admitted that you couldn't hack it. No dispute.

      You have admitted that you couldn't grasp the complexities of 5,10,15,20. No dispute.

      You have admitted that you wasted all those years and money getting a degree which wasn't worth the paper it was printed on. No dispute.

      You have admitted that, since you were a failure, you don't want anyone else to be happy at this job. No dispute.

      You have admitted that, if you weren't such a lazy slob, you might have avoided your expulsion from pharmacy and have made millions over the years in profit sharing alone. No dispute.

      You have admitted that there are kids coming out of pharmacy school making a 5 figure bonus, a six figure salary, and an incredibly wide range of benefits AND are able to master this job and find it both rewarding and satisfying. No dispute.

      Any questions?

    • You said it again in post 40126
      <The fact is retail prescription drug market has risen double digit for several years. The chains same store script sales have not kept up.>

      same store script sales is not the same thing as the prescription drug market. Walgreen is increasing Rx drug sales at least as fast as the Rx drug market is expanding. Take the Rx increase at stores included in same store sales and add to it the Rx sales in stores not included in same store sales and you get the double digits you can't seem to find or acknowledge.

    • Let me try again. You stated that Wags and other chains have not increased same store sales even close to the market expansion double digit rate. That's true but totally meaningless. You were trying to imply that it means wag & other retailer are underperforming the market. The market expansion includes not just expanded Rx sales in same stores but also the new rx sales coming from new stores. When you look at Wags increase of Rx sales year over year, it has exceeded the rate of total rx market expansion.

      Having said that I will concede that mail order has been growing at a greater rate than community pharmacy. Bernauer has also conceded that. Nonetheless Wag will continue their double digit increases for several more years at least, as the total market is accelerating in growth.

      I believe the posting of Rx prices in New York will have negligible effect. This was done in Michigan in the 1970's and meant nothing. People ignored the lists. Also, as you have pointed out, with the onset of Medicare Rx drug coverage no one is left to pay the cash price anyway, so why should anyone care what the cash price is?

    • swing trading/short term holds are not the same as daytrading. BTW--- unless your portfolio is worth several million dollars you prob. have too much money invested in WAG with 6000 shares. Ask a financial advisor for help. You know what they say about too many eggs.....
      LOL . Well it is fun responding to you, as for investing there are other stocks, such as CMX, HUM, AET, PSTI, WCG, UNH, RAD which look like better choices in this industry. Check them out for 3 to 6 months short term hold then lets see who is making more money. Until then there is a spill in aisle 6 so hop to it..

    • I don't know how you (eliminate) are going to help anyone understand the drug market, when you clearly don't grasp it yourself.

      <I noticed that wags and the other chains have not increased same store sales even close to the market expansion double digit rate.>

      The market expansion double digit rate includes new stores, it is not a same store sales comparison. WAG sales growth has been double digit for many years. Since you are in the business of bashing others, I would suggest you give a little thought to a subject before posting. You have been shown to be wrong so many times that I'm sure you would have tucked your tail between your legs and run away long ago if it were not for the anonomity of the message board.

    • Yeah, maybe you'd better stick to playing with flashlights. Leave the stock discussion to the grownups.

    • i swing trade with about 13 stocks, not to mention the long term holds, so keep your job.
      and iron your smock

    • LOSER, POS, MORON, I haven't been on here in a few days, but FYI, ----- You would trade your lame ass job for my stock portfolio in a heartbeat. What other stocks do you invest in? OR, is all your money in WAG stock. Get a life and stop listening to all the hype B.S. that you are hearing at work. Wag is like every other company, they are using you to make money and be profitable. Do you think they care about your opinions.

    • "" I am not an investor in that company dip shit.""
      Really? Then can you explain how you happen to find this news item?
      The longs are probably embarassed to have you on their side, but then again longs in wag stock aren't that bright anyway.

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