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  • robbsbeach robbsbeach Aug 15, 2010 12:57 PM Flag

    WHO: H1N1 pandemic over

    My point was about growing new core earnings, not merging it, of course cost savings should occur over time.

    As for Buying the dips and rips, will you share your insite in the Sept. earnings outlook ??

    Is this a permanent or temporary speculative play?

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    • I don't have any more insight than the next guy, as far as earnings go. I follow closely, though.

      My gut tells me that there will be a quarter much like the last. We saw July numbers relatively flat. Good versus the competitive set, but still flat.

      DR's integration will boost revenues but will drag on profitability for the near term.

      We saw last quarter that retailers in general are struggling, consumer confidence is down, and I think we will see a general market pullback in the next month or two as election season heats up, particularly if it looks like the Bush tax cuts will not be extended post election day.

      Remember, October is historically a horrible month for the stock market, and September isn't much better. WAG tends to mirror the market, and is a retailer, after all.

      Of course, I could be completely wrong. I'm neither buying nor selling here. I'll buy more if we see a dip below 25. Jult my opinion.

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      • 1 Reply to irunthe262
      • The confidence level in retail in general is down, but assuming that this is evenly distributed in a standard deviation curve does not break out the Rx's sectors growth, which is the core driver of earnings.

        Mirroring the market in a election cycle with National Healthcare reform in place will increase growth in this sector and I don't believe will negatively effect earnings. I am thinking just the opposite for this sector.

        What I am looking at is the growing fragmentation of this market which is trending upward, with the exception of PBM's and mail-order where growth continues to increase with competition increasing and consolidation, M&A's will continue controlling access, an i.e. being Atena and CVS, effecting retail positioning going forward.
        Using a historical method to calculate value at risk ,I don't believe applies on a year over year basis of core growth.
        Going to a Monte Carlo table might prove to be more fun.