The confidence level in retail in general is down, but assuming that this is evenly distributed in a standard deviation curve does not break out the Rx's sectors growth, which is the core driver of earnings.
Mirroring the market in a election cycle with National Healthcare reform in place will increase growth in this sector and I don't believe will negatively effect earnings. I am thinking just the opposite for this sector.
What I am looking at is the growing fragmentation of this market which is trending upward, with the exception of PBM's and mail-order where growth continues to increase with competition increasing and consolidation, M&A's will continue controlling access, an i.e. being Atena and CVS, effecting retail positioning going forward. Using a historical method to calculate value at risk ,I don't believe applies on a year over year basis of core growth. Going to a Monte Carlo table might prove to be more fun.