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Walgreen Co. Message Board

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  • robbsbeach robbsbeach Aug 16, 2010 9:42 AM Flag

    WHO: H1N1 pandemic over

    The confidence level in retail in general is down, but assuming that this is evenly distributed in a standard deviation curve does not break out the Rx's sectors growth, which is the core driver of earnings.

    Mirroring the market in a election cycle with National Healthcare reform in place will increase growth in this sector and I don't believe will negatively effect earnings. I am thinking just the opposite for this sector.

    What I am looking at is the growing fragmentation of this market which is trending upward, with the exception of PBM's and mail-order where growth continues to increase with competition increasing and consolidation, M&A's will continue controlling access, an i.e. being Atena and CVS, effecting retail positioning going forward.
    Using a historical method to calculate value at risk ,I don't believe applies on a year over year basis of core growth.
    Going to a Monte Carlo table might prove to be more fun.