This is the mark on a technical standpoint of the last reversal of the market. I am staying in at a 50% loss until this mark. I have gambled in the 25 range so far! I do think the market is being manipulated, and see earnings go up as well. I am in construction, and I tell you it is 80% less going on than usual. People are not paying there mortgages, and I have broke many trading rules with VXX, Stops, and trying to catch a falling knife!
Gentlemen, I spent a decade in the home building business so I know of what you speak. But you must remember that even though we're not building at the bubble levels of the last decade, S&P companies are making money hand over fist by selling overseas to rapidly expanding markets. Even though housing starts are terrible, the U.S. consumer continues to spend. My point is that you will lose your ass if you short this market over the next year. There is no collapse, despite what you see on Fox News all day long. (Remember that they have a political motive; we have a financial motive.)
Housing starts will return. The population continues to grow. I figure we've got about a million houses to tear down and build again. Why? Because the housing boom and bust of the last decade left us with the most shabbily built houses we have ever seen.