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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

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  • xtgeminiman@ymail.com xtgeminiman Aug 12, 2011 8:39 AM Flag

    XIV underperformance explained

    It depends on how volatile the market (and consequently the VIX) in the near future. If we're as volatile as we have been, we could easily see it around $5 in two weeks (look at how the big swings the past two weeks cut XIV in half).

    Eventually the term structure will turn in our favor, it's just a matter of when and how much more volatile the market will be in the mean time.

    Unfortunately it's a tough market to predict and investors hate uncertainty. The VIX has only hit 35 about 30 times and out of those 30 times, it's hit ~45 3 times and 80 once. Of course, a lot of those 35 spikes were before high frequency trading so 35 might be an older standard.

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    • Well, for what it's worth, the August contract is trading for less (43) than it was yesterday (49). So, although we may still be in backwardation, it seems to be subsiding... If we stop seeing wild 500 point swings per day, backwardation should continue to decrease.

 
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