VIX is a fear index trade. Will see gap up in VIX if panic in market. Ie, news driven decline in market with panic selling, massive computer driven sell orders after key support broken, or if catastrophic news event. Profit taking induced market declines, or simple low volume downward drifts in market not likely to move VIX significantly higher. If anything, the fear trade these days has been on the upside as traders rush in the market during rallies, fearing that they will miss the inevitable bull run!
my big concern is that John Hussman, who is the best forecaster out there, says there is almost 100% chance we're in recession now or will be soon. He thinks S&P is going to 900 and that scares me a little.