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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

  • knowmaas knowmaas Aug 13, 2012 11:48 AM Flag

    I,m Long this P.O.S Question Tho

    Does this ever go up? I mean really. Does this ever go up. I was apart of this scam a couple years ago and eroded half my portfollio on this on recommendation from my broker. I jumped in for 4k shares at 12.03 and have been watching the VXX for a long time, Just see a continual decline and thought there was no way it could keep going south. But EVERDAY for weeks this has been down. NEVER and i say NEVER do you see a $1 pop or more on this P.O.S

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    • dcorielle74@rocketmail.com dcorielle74 Aug 13, 2012 1:07 PM Flag

      This P.O.S. goes down no matter what the market does. I give up on this junk. Apparently, there's no volatility now or in the future.

      • 2 Replies to dcorielle74
      • good assessment meanwhile the short for vxx is XIV which set a new high today. yet i see it at resistance as well as SPY SPX so now is not the time to buy.

        for shorting the market i prefer SDS EDZ as they respond directly in lock step to S&P

      • Guys, VXX is not a stock, it's basically a daily stastical calculation. The rules of Technical analysis does not apply and it's long term expected value is $0 (thus the seemingly permanent downslope). That said, it's actually performing exactly like it's suppose to, it's used to hedge against sharp declines in long position of actual stocks of companies in a portfolio. It's based on Volatility Futures which are in steep contango (i.e. more downside for VXX in coming weeks)

        To give you an idea how complex this is, 1) you have stocks 2) you have an index of stocks like s&p 500 3) you have options on this index 4) based on the options there's implied volatility calcuations 5) then you have futures on volatility 6) then you finally have VXX which is based on these volatility futures.

    • could not agree with you more. I am not sure if this is a Fraud or scam by braclyes management.

    • well this ETF teaches a valuable lesson to many, don't try to guess a top or peak. Wait for it to reverse and then consider doing something with the new trend (i.e. get the hell out of dodge). Best thing to do is avoid VXX either short or long and let these ETF rip

    • It will trade with the VIX futures give or take a penny.

      The path of VXX is a function of (1) roll yield, (2) contango, (3) negative convexity in the underlying futures, and (4) mean reversion in the VIX futures.

      Personally, I believe we are in the middle of a MAJOR adjustment in medium to long term expectations of volatility and willingness of investors to "pay up" for long term protection.

      I expect the VIX term structure to be front month 12 to back month 17 sometime in the next year.

      • 1 Reply to slcehamrick
      • I bought a few LEAP 2014 Options at a strike price of 5, for 8.60. I still think it's a good bet, but this is really gambling not investing no basis for this index. I mean the PMI was negative for two months, China is heading for a recession, and Europe is a mess. Plus we have a socialist president winning re-election, I would not be surprise to see a 20% crash post election if democrats win out.

 
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