Here is the flaw in your thesis, the dollar rise and subsequent commodity fall will result in more money in the hands of the consumer driving demand. The entire bull run of the 90's was based on a rising dollar!
Another factor in the bull camp would be the potential rotation out of bonds and into equities. This may have already started, as dividend stocks are getting nice cash inflows.....this would be a massive rotation as bonds have been taking in money for more then 5 years and the unwind may take as long. Should your rising dollar thesis be correct, money will not move from bonds into commodities, but rather real estate and equity.
The only bear arguments that make sense to me are 1- our policy makers are #$%$, and 2- when everything seems rosy, lookout below. Not much to go out and short stocks with!