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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

  • jr41000 jr41000 Jan 16, 2013 6:00 PM Flag

    Wes your take on this.

    I m short on XIV and SVXY. My average on XIV is around 20.10. On SVXY i been adding my average is 76.00 Again I'm short. Question 1 where would you add to these two short positions and what time? End of the month or first week of Feb or 2nd week of Feb? Question 2 what would your targets be . If my plan works out then i want to roll the money and short VXX, and UVXY. All this if the first positions work out. Would love some feedback and sound advice. I never long any of these ETFS. Lost a ton longing this garbage more then year ago.

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    • Welp, I'd say your in a #$%$ position. I have a VXX long position which is much like yours and it as well is #$%$. Today was the only day I was able to use my cash pile to pull a profit on this in a week and I literally beat it with a sledge hammer to hammer out a couple bucks today.

      I personally think you will be all right. Sounds weird considering this market is up 9 out of 11 days BUT timing is the key. It is good you recognize that. You are in a fickle position where no amount of money in the World can help you be profitable except for well timed placements of your bets and even then you have currents against you. I can not wait to short VXX or buy XIV - I do not believe I will be doing that until the end of February beginning of March.

      Since I am am long as well here is what I think. I added intra day to my position today and I think we may have some upward pressure on your products still (lowered volatility). This is dependent upon the daily market condition of course and today looked ripe to me for a market downturn at the end of the day -miniscule. This may not happen tomorrow but I suspect it will.

      If you are going to add to your position, I think you should look at Wednesday next week. I will be adding 50% to my position on that day, prior to Apple's earnings, maybe even more depending on conditions of course. This is all based on my opinion that Wednesday should begin a market downturn. If I am wrong and we are in trouble with these ETN's you will know by Friday and the market may be breaching new highs at which point you would have to pair back your bet a bit and wait to re-add to it upon the debt ceiling chitter-chatter. Which simply throws my timing off a bit and moves adding to the position out to the end of the month or first week of Feb. I think it is going to be early rather than late. That's all.

      When/if we get a downturn I think it will be a 30 day event, enough time that you can get your money lined up for your short VXX, UVXY or buying XIV for a while.

      Stay healthy, we will buy the rest! ;)

      • 2 Replies to wes_w_weber
      • I did what I did yesterday as I told you, to eek out a gain on VXX. Hit with a sledge hammer!! If we can get a slight roll over in the DOW at the end of the day we will close at highs on VXX.

        Petty but I will take it! This thing is relentless in its decline! I have to clear that trade at the end of day because it is way too heavy. Rinse and repeat until VXX gets some traction, if it does..

      • Nice. Solid feedback as expected. Still i rather be short on SVXY and XIV then be long VXX lol. So basically am trying to time . Am waiting for SPY to go up more so i can add to my short on XIV and SVXY. I think the debt ceiling drama will start somewhere in last week of JAN. Your thoughts on that? Earnings have done nothing for the market so far. Analysts keep cutting the forecasts so no earnings look bad. No idea what apple will do on earnings so staying away. However do you think add to short position last week of Jan or end of first week of Feb?

    • Holy #$%$ dude you are SCREWED. Get out now. XIV and SVXY will go up at least 100% per year for the next 10 years and probably much more. You will have your assets seized.

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