You're correct, contango is about 11% way to steep for this to make a meaningful move, even if the spot VIX moves let's say 10-20% in the next few days/weeks...
"the spot VIX moves let's say 10-20% in the next few days/weeks..."
I am guessing the spot WILL rebound ... but it wont do VXX much good. VXX may never be over $26 again. might hit $25 next week if vix rebounds (eg aapl earnings disappoint)... but 'might'.
It is going down, market will not go up, as AAPL, GOOG cause ripples.