At this point in time, my opinion is that every day without news is good news. Every day that passes without achieving the 184th event is another day that someone did not die. Since 2/3's of the patients are on tnferade, chances are that is a good indication. Management predicted the 184th event in the 4th quarter of 2010 -- we are there. I DEFINITELY believe that once the 184th event is announced ANYWHERE from here forward; the price will go up on pure speculation of the possible results when they are announced approximately 2 months later. I believe up to $1 per share, the stock becomes AT LEAST a 3x lottery. In my opinion, the longer we go the greater the "X" factor becomes. It makes sense to me to be buying a little more stock every day that passes that the price stays somewhere below $1, perhaps even higher.
Just my opinion -- patience is hard, but now it is GOOD.
Yes, the 2010 was a typo. Obviously, and as pointed out by others, the 184th event was predicted to occur in the 4th quarter of 2009 by management. Also in response to Gary's comment, I did not literally mean that a day that passes means that no one died. Obviously, this would only be the case if 183 "events" already occured. But, each day that passes means more man days alive and should be more positive for tnferade. I don't think the price will ignore this forever, and to beat a point to death, once the 184th event is announced, I fully believe all the "day traders" we long timers profess to hate will pile on this stock in hopes of hitting the lottery within 2 months after the 184th event is announced. The longer we go without the 184th event, the bigger I expect the "pile on" to be -- we'll see.
While I agree generally with what you're saying, your statement that each day we don't get told about the 184th even is a day no one died is incorrect. We do not know how many in the trial have died, the only way your statement could be true is if you know 183 have died.
I've got to believe we're getting close, as we were told it should happen this quarter. I would hope that we're still 10 or so patients away. I'm guessing that on average 7 patients enter the trial each month, and to do 92 events in roughly 14 to 15 months roughly 6 people die each month.
It's possible we could get to 183 and spend weeks, or even a month or more to reach 184. It's equally possible that we could be at 180 and gain 4 more deaths in under a week. My point is, there are no guarantees, averaging 6 deaths a month doesn't mean anyone will die in any given month.
The last event trigger was announced as a 'by the way' at an investor presentation. Do we need to wait for a company presentation at a conference to hear about the 184th event? If so, no telling how far ahead of the event we'll hear about it.
Also, if you look at some of the previous posts, you will see one from today with a response from Investor Relations that reads:
"Thank you for your email. Relating to TNFerade, we presented data from the PACT trial at ASCO a few months ago in June 2009. We expect to have data from the second interim analysis in the PACT trial in the first quarter of 2010. We also plan to announce when the 184th event occurs in the trial, which we anticipate will be some time in the fourth quarter of this year....."
Again, unless management is just lying and is will to take the chance of being called on it at a later date -- the 184th event has not taken place just yet.