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Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

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  • koberjm1122 koberjm1122 Oct 9, 2010 4:35 PM Flag

    HEAD IHUB nerd says TEVA won't get

    Hey Zip - you pretty much got it right - I did invest and lose heavily in RPRX and the BV board was very negative on that particular stock - which I don't have a problem with - in this case they were right. What I objected to was the WAY in which Dew especially communicated his views - which I would categorize as arrogant, unfair, and frequently misinformed.

    As for MNTA, I feel Dew has misled many of his followers by his irresponsible and delusional predictions of 30, 40, 50, even 80 pps. He has cost a lot of people a lot of money and yeah, you can never blame someone else for your actions but many trust him and those that did have been hurt, and hurt badly.

    I don't see a reason for holding MNTA right now. It isn't going anywhere for months unless something unexpected comes out of left field and yet there remains some risk for t-enox approval. I know you don't think it will happen, but that doesn't mean it won't. And if it does MNTA will lose at least 1/3 of its value overnight. Seems like a lot of risk for very little upside, to me. Would like to get your thoughts on this.

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    • Hi jmk,

      >>What I objected to was the WAY in which Dew especially communicated his views - which I would categorize as arrogant, unfair, and frequently misinformed.

      Personally, I think we need to cut others some slack to be themselves. DD is well informed and a good thinker. That said, he is not likely to be offered a diplomatic position. Me either. :-)

      >>I feel Dew has misled many of his followers by his irresponsible and delusional predictions of 30, 40, 50, even 80 pps.

      I would distinguish estimates of value under specified conditions from predictions of a given price. Successful value investing requires, IMO, the ability to identify situations in which value is significantly different than current prices. You probably have read enough of my posts to know that I too have created models to understand the value of MNTA under different cases (profit share vs. royalty). DD did do a best case valuation for MNTA that projected a high value. Frankly, I think MNTA is worth a small fortune IF they remain the only approved generic of Lovenox. In that CASE 80 is not delusional, IMO. (I probably did a best case projection too - just do not recall the result.)

      Or at least, I share the delusion. :-)

      I have followed MNTA for more years than I care to recall. At approval I was largely out and surprised at approval since I had given up. :-(

      We now they are approved - the ONLY one approved. That could persist.

      So after approval I started buying. I continue to buy including more yesterday. When the stock broke down from the low 20's I started hedging by selling near-month covered calls on about a third of my holdings. Nearly all have expired worthless. Hopefully more will do so next Friday.

      FDA can be painfully slow. This time I hope they will be. They can approve tL in 2015 and it will be ok with me. :-)

      >>I know you don't think it will happen, but that doesn't mean it won't. And if it does MNTA will lose at least 1/3 of its value overnight.

      I try to keep faith in my doubts. I certainly recognize my fallibility.

      I also know that the royalty case is still very valuable to MNTA, call it $450M to 600M. That is close to the current EV of $575M. So while the stock could tank on tL, it would not be the end of the game.

      zip

 
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