3Q 4q 2011
Avg. Estimate 0.52 0.51 0.36 1.39
No. of Analysts 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Low Estimate 0.02 0.13 -0.51 -0.24
High Estimate 0.95 0.87 1.12 3.75
Year Ago EPS -0.38 -0.34 -1.60 0.36
Even at low estimate and you really need to use a 20x multiple because of the rate of growth....it's $27.80...but if it's on the high end then $75.00. nice range
and that's just Enox.
Your first 2 paragraphs (after the first sentence) on the numbers downside are of course quite correct.
Your 3rd paragraph does sound pompous :-)
But to drill down seriously on these numbers. Let us go with 50-50 on TEVA getting approved in the next year. If not, then we have 2011 earnings in the $4-6/s range, and the stock will easily go north of $30.
On a TEVA approval, obviously MNTA drops back to more of a dev stage bio. The mL rev will cover much of the expenses, but will not drive the PPS. So the stock goes to say $12?
I will roll the dice on this one.
As to my 50-50, I think that is reasonably conservative. TEVA has been waiting 7 years now. If it is true that TEVA's product is the Luponox product unmodified then it has no chance in hell. Also, the TEVA response to SA "Citizens Petition" looks bad for them.
And sorry, MFs suck.
At the risk of sounding pompous, there are two "answers" to your question.
The immediate answer is that if another generic were to be approved, then MNTA could theoretically have a third of the market share (but SNY would then probably rollout its authorized genericiso in reality, NVS/MNTA would then have a 25% share if we assign equal market shares.
The big negative for MNTA is that their agreement with NVS changes to MNTA receiving anywhere from 9-11% of the revenue, rather than 45% of the profit and this scenario would not be as profitable to MNTA. This is the downside risk in the stock.
The larger issue is that I am assuming you own some MNTA, and if so, before any of us plunk down our hard earned dollars and purchases shares in any company, we should all do our own research. The issue on profit split regarding MNTA has been known for more than a year, widely disclosed by the company during presentations and conference calls among other venues. If a person does not have the time to devote researching a specific company fully, he/she should consider stock mutual funds rather than individual stocks.
Bingo!!!! Very well expressed Zip! Even if a second generic were to hit the market....wouldn't it then make sense that all three would share the pie.....one-third a piece? So MNTA's share goes from 50% (+/-) to 33% (+/-). Does that mean MNTA pps gets "hit" that hard?
The shorts thesis is that TEVA will get their generic enoxaparin approved. Teva has claimed that they will get approval soon. If so, MNTA's stock will tank and the shorts will cover.
The risk the shorts are taking is that Teva will not get approved, MNTA will print money that will fuel the platform, other products will be partnered and come to market, and NVS buys them out.
Everyone should ask themselves what is the risk (downside) versus the reward (upside) and place your bet accordingly.
Any idea on 3Q and 4Q results for 2010 ? i saw this week Novartis had reported 292MM of sales for enox, not sure how much of that goes to MNTA and what would be the 3Q and 4Q if we assume 300MM and 300MM for both quarters, best !