260 mil or 280 mil , will not change a whole lot , when u consider profit to MNTA
What would materially change the valuation is, how long would the TEVA overhang last ? Is it likely that TEVA would ultimately be able to get FDA approval, be it by Dec 2011 or some time in 2012 ?
Copaxone trial outcome can also change the valuation
And of course any news on FOB partnership. Likely that they are trying to rope in a major player . This is a real test for CEO who IMO has not done much in the last 5 years other than Lovenox approval. The company says they have made advancements in FOB, but nothing yet is made public. Let's hope they release soon what those advancements are..maybe in form of pipeline with some milestone dates
As I have said before, NVS has approximately 50% of the existing FOB market and reportedly somewhere around 10 FOB candidates in the pipeline. Yet they are also extremely guarded about giving details on their FOB program. The fact of the matter is this is a rapidly evolving market and you do not want to tip your hat to either the branded patent holder or potential generic competitors.
IG, you have indicated that CW has not made any progress in 4 to 5 years. I'm willing to give him a partial reset to July 2010. He now has a revenue stream to fund additional FOB efforts. The pressure to show that they are advancing candidates to the clinic themselves or partnering then is now greater than ever. I will be looking for an update on this at this qtr cc.
That said I agree that MNTA can and should be providing announcements about partnerships, collaborations etc to show that progress is being made on this front.
a FOB partnership needs to happen soon.. its getting a bit ridiculous. and I agree the transparency is suspect.. Also investor you know that I believe tenox will have a difficult time getting approval as and interchangeable product. Same as Sodrock ;)
My only guess about this price control is that some heavy hitter was unwinding a short against the box (in some form). Shares have to be secured on both ends before the deal is complete and reported. Look for another half million shorts to be gone from the next reporting(just from todays action). On 3x the regular volume we are flat? (WTF?) Some days a 1000 share trade moves the price a dime.
what can they say? TEVA still quiet about their generic lovenox.. Folks waiting on Mcopax trail or approval.. MNTA and potential partners more than likely waiting on official pathway language for FOB. It sucks I know. Buy and hold
perry it is very possible we see growth in the overall Lovenox market because of the generic that is available; i.e. more generic usage means market growth.. however I do believe that folks are underestimating the potential threat oral anti xa meds are to the high dose retail business going forward; cardiovascular patients. However I don't see $$ value ever going below $250 per quarter
For MNTA this ranslates to about:
Just another large beat of the estimates.
Growth is likely maxed out now, but we will keep seeing estimates being beat every every Q.