Launch a surprise (bad news) and I believe a mistake by sanofi they will lose more market share to ag than what they will gain in profit share from ag. majority of share will come from lost brand sales then from mnta. Should have waited until amphastar plays out, if mnta wins big mistake but damage done.
Good news is that mnta disclosed economics post ag launch is much better then street thought. In a contract year once a floor is hit royalty goes back to pre AG launch rate (street modeling all at 10% of net sales).
still a major reduction since the ag launched but much better economics then expected
one other point is this will give amphastar something concrete to argue in court to have the PI removed. once share moves to sanofi's ag they will not want to move again to amphastar when they are able to launch now or never for amphastar
if amphastar can launch with ag market would probably be 40% mnta/sandoz 25% ag 25 % amphastar 10 % brand
if amphastar is held up by PI then 40% mnta/sandoz 35% ag 15 % amphastar 10 % brand
so amphastar will strongly argue for quick resolution
another point if scenario 2 plays out amphastar will be much more willing to launch at risk of mnta patent loss since damages will be much lower since the majority of share would come from the AG not momenta so much lower damage profile with an AG out there first since anything they take from ag would have no damages to mnta