I'll weigh in and state that %.60 may be optimistic, particularly with the recent script data. While pharmacies may want to keep inventories lean at year end for reporting reasons, believe the AG, and to some extent Xarelto for post-op knees and hips took a 6-8% bite our of revenues for NVS. I'm guessing the ongoing expenses will be close to $20 million with legal costs included and would not be surprised to see earnings of $.20 - .30 a share before any special items.
My biggest concern about the AG contracts that are out there is the duration of the contracts and any possibility that will allow SNY to vacate them. However, believe such maneuvering will work to NVS/MNTA advantage in the future once the AG is again marketed.
>>Yes, you had best have some legal game when your first 2 matches are against TEVA :-)
I don't play major league ball. :-) But I have never seen lawyering at the level it is going into the patent battle over launching a generic enoxaparin.
TEVA's lawyers will not outclass those representing NVS/Sandoz/MNTA. That does not suggest who will win, just that it will not be caused by unequal representation (something which does happen).
50-50 split is good but copaxone is less than half of the brand market size of lovenox in the US so less then half the sales potential, with new improved drugs coming out that will even lower the brand size
I agree an AG may not come out right away but if MNTA sets it sights on more then 50% market share then one will come for sure, teva will also have a few tricks planned since they have seen it all.
Mylan has been saying they are going to get approval for years and as long as they say it it will hold the stock down, because if teva has not done an AG they will if mylan comes in so it will be a huge overhang
I agree that copaxone is a big plus but the real stock driver will be a biologic, that is why people are investing copaxone is the last generic non biologic as soon as copaxone gets approved the street will say whats next and next will be pretty far off.
This is where MGT let us down!!
>>Copaxone approval would be big but teva will do an AG
I don't think so. Standard duopoly profit maximization theory says no. But here TEVA has an additional reason NOT to offer an AG. Neurologists are a very conservative bunch and they may be reluctant to move to a mC. TEVA offering an AG would seem a validation and even if not that, further erode pricing. So I do not expect an AG on this one.
>>the analysts will keep saying Mylan is coming so the stock will be held back
Perhaps. But I suspect Mylan will have to run the MNTA patent gauntlet. So far, MNTA is showing they have a legal game in addition to a "sameness" game.
and the analysts will keep saying Mylan is coming so the stock will be held back
What is important is a BD deal on MNTA's technology, MGMT can say how great it is in 16 conferences a year, but the street just says if it is so great "where are the partners", that is the number 1 thing holding the stock down
Copaxone approval would be big but teva will do an AG and the analysts will keep saying Mylan is coming so the stock will be held back
Generic drugs are nice cash flow but the real money is in biologics
don't forget there was temporary pricing "war" when the AG was announced and as someone said probably still honored in the contracts signed during that time period.
Not sure the pricing totally regained its former level.