SNY’s Chris Viehbacher said on today’s CC that SNY *expects* a new competitor (Amphastar/WPI) to launch; however, Viehbacher did not say that Amphastar/WPI had in fact launched, and one would presume that SNY would know about such a launch very quickly.
Viehbacher’s comment meant nothing, evidently, and we now have the worst-case scenario. The Lovenox patent-infringement lawsuit still holds some value for MNTA, but the lawsuit’s NPV for MNTA is greatly reduced with a settlement presumably off the table.
Support for the shape price will now have to come from the fact that the enterprise value (market cap less cash on hand) is very low, even if one values the NPV of the Lovenox royalty stream very conservatively.
Yea it is bad news that we got the launch, but we still don't know if this is a full scale launch. WPI could be launching in small amounts just because they know it will hurt MNTA, but not going full scale because they don't want to put too much at risk in the event that they lose the patent case later. I don't think this takes a potential settlement off the table at all.