$NVS reported 1Q12 tonight, with the Net Sales of Sandoz down 10% (-8% cc) to USD $2.1 billion, driven by price erosion. Volume was flat as declines in the US (-6%) and Germany (-14%) were offset by double digit growth elsewhere.
US retail generics and biosimilars (USD $641 Million, -21%) declined as a result of the increased competition for enoxaparin (generic Lovenox, USD 176 million) which caused pricing to decline.
Admittedly, the PR which we've paraphrased here is unclear. We assume the $176 mil is the US only sales of M-Enoxaparin. But it could be global, in which case it is a wipe out for MNTA.
Cowen estimated that MNTA is due 10-12% of the M-Enoxaparin, given disclosures of "low single digit royalties". So a conservative $17.6M?
There is however a wide range of est for $MNTA 1Q12 rev from $60.4M to 16.1M. So it is difficult to see any way that the high man gets his number.
A couple of corrections regarding your comments. First of all, m-enox is not "global" only available in US. Secondly, MNTA received its usual 45% share of product profit for about the first 28-29 days of January, then reverted to the 10-12% model.