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IAC/InterActiveCorp Message Board

  • Getting away from the specifics here, let it be known that the VIX(volatility index), has settled in at 20 for a long time now. That is known to correlate with downturns in the past. Shortly, the market may begin its long awaited correction that should last until the VIX climbs to 40 at least.
    IACI correlates fairly close to the market. Then, you can blame its weakness on the market.

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    • Changing the subject? No, I meant "show me evidence that the international numbers are padded".

      There are many reports that indicate a rapidly expanding market in Europe for e-commerce.

      Among many are:

      http://www.info-edge.com/samples/EM-2067sam.pdf

      ... which forecast about $1 trillion being spent online annually by Europeans by 2004.

      Yes, we all know analyst numbers are often way wrong. But there are a lot of reports from other e-tailing giants that seem to agree with expanding revenue opportunities abroad.

      And given their starting percentage rates are even LOWER today, it doesn't take much offline to online shift to yield a doubling, or in Expedia's case -- tripling -- of revenues.

      When EXPE reports tripling international revenues, and when it now powers sites like:

      * France's national railway SNCF
      * Air France's hotel and rental cars
      * British Airways' hotel and rental cars

      ... and when IACI owns the leading television travel seller in the UK, I think it's possible that we'll see more growth abroad.

    • No, Jeff, I am quite on the subject. I believe the European growth numbers are padded (overstated) and the projections are overinflated. This is OK with most investors because they are not familiar with the cyclical patterns of e-tail in Europe.

      I, on the contrary, I have seen this kind of hype over and over and referenced it here for everyone's benefit. If you choose to remain blind then go ahead and believe that everything that's stated by Diller is 100% correct! I don't! LOL

    • I'll show you "the evidence" when IACI is trading at 20. Until then, enjoy the ride down. By the way, the double top was confirmed before mid-July, so it's been more than just a "a great week for shorts". It's getting ready to become something much more interesting, I'm certain of that. Cheers!

    • your logic is right on. I have alot of executive level experience as CEO and officer etc, and kno wthe services business well. The room method of gross revenues is flawed IMO.
      "Net Gross Revenues" is a mandatory method IMO. This is the only way to determine "a true profitablity" transaction. After your cost of goods/services computation, the rest is SG&A. And that is where the boogie men hang out. A wayward CEO can easily destroy a company by slashing service levels (SG&A) and other vital expenses needed to maintain quality service and response levels.

      measuring a services business on profitablity alone is stupid. Promise.

    • What evidence did you need when you bought EXPE at $9? You did your work and realized it was undervalued. You got paid handsomely. Likewise, you can do your work now and realize IACI is overvalued. Don't wait for the market to do your work for you.

    • Well, Jeff, you'd be surprised to find out that in Europe the rate of growth in online retail (not just travel) is much slower than you're led to believe. There is very strong offline competition, for one thing. There is much less obsession with technology and privacy than in the US where everyone is so paranoid that their neighbour may find out what they're doing. Finally, people would generally much rather go down a nice boulevard to one of ten agencies and get an excellent deal than spend an hour online searching and wondering.

      Also, in the US people are growingly becoming more savvy about finding out great deals elsewhere. THey're not particularly attached to EXPE. I am talking from my own experience, I've often found better deals from Travelocity or other competitors, although on occasion I've booked with EXPE (and paid the extra money just out of lazyness).

      Cyclical trends are no guarantee of further growth. Furthermore, the capitalization of this conglomerate is already very rich with expectations such as you describe. At best, you will find stability at somewhat lower levels. At worst, it'll much worse than you care to consider.

    • <<The rate of people moving their travel purchases and event ticket purchases and home financing activity online is growing more than 50% year over year.>>

      Again you focus on the past and extrapolate it to the future. Not necessarily so. All three are not growing at the same rate you mention. We may be close to a saturation level now with some new entries negated by others dissatisfied with this mode. And how about other negatives you fail to mention? Margins in process of being cut now, low barrier to entry for new competition, and existing competion sharpening their own skills.
      EXPE, the biggest, has the most to lose. Scale, their biggest advantage in the past, where you like to focus, is being taken away as hotels react by forcing bookings through them or their own newly formed online agency, Travelweb. And airlines are scratching for every dollar to enhance bookings through them individually or through their own group online booking agency, Orbitz.
      Your rosy scenario presents a one sided view. EXPE and ROOM have had a great run, but they are vulnerable.

    • >> I'll show you "the evidence" when IACI is trading at 20.

      LOL, but I thought we were talking about international growth.

      I noted that EXPE's international revenues have tripled year over year.

      You contended that the numbers were padded.

      I asked for evidence.

    • >> So K-mart is a born winner, and always be. Walmart should fail long time ago.

      ???

      Did you post the above via a Palm Pilot or something?

      Sounds like a fortune cookie.

      I'm not sure what you're saying.

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IACI
68.18-0.73(-1.06%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

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