We see only two outcomes for IAC: either IAC is forced to shut down its illegal distribution partnerships, or IAC loses its Google deal entirely. In scenario one, IAC's revenue from search will drop from $1.6 billion to $1.36 billion. In scenario two, IAC loses its deal with Google entirely. If we assume they manage to strike or retain a partnership with Microsoft or Yahoo, then their search revenue would be lower by at least 30-40% due to poorer monetization of the Bing advertising platform. Add in the shut down of their illegal distribution partnerships, and we estimate revenues would shrink to $800 million/year, half of what management is guiding and what analysts have been baking into their models.