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Forest Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • frankposting frankposting Jan 13, 2012 5:01 PM Flag

    Waiting out drugs launches

    Not so long ago, biotech makers could practically bank on seeing their company values jump once they obtained regulatory approval to market a drug. Now, investors are more likely to wait on the sidelines, or short a stock, ahead of proof the new treatments will be a commercial success, a process that could take months.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/us-healthcare-investors-idUSTRE80C1SQ20120113?feedType=RSS&feedName=globalMarketsNews&rpc=43

    FRX was very successful in marketing new drugs. However, the drug marketing environment has been changed dramatically, In 2011, FRX was unsuccessful as demand for Dalresp and Savella has come in lighter than expected. In 2012, FRX will have 3 products (one for constipation, one for COPD, and Namenda XR) come to the market. The constipation one is shared with Ironwood to challenge Amitiza (Takeda), however Amitiza only has a $200M market. COPD is a crowded market and full of cheap generics. Namenda (owned by FRX), twice daily, is a blockbuster. Namenda XR, once daily, has been already approved. A delay of launching will eat into its exclusivity. And the success of using "once daily" to replace cheap generic "twice dily" is doubtful.

 
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