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Forest Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • frankposting frankposting Feb 21, 2012 12:24 AM Flag

    A Hard-Ball to FRX

    The market is pitching a hardball to FRX: facing fierce generic challenges the company needs to curb the costs, but the company could not survive with deep cut (the comany's power is not on R&D but on marketing).

    If a company had a good product in the one of the following 4 categories: PPI, Blood-Thinner, Antipsychotic/Antidepressant, or COPD/Asthma 10 years ago no matter via own R&D or via acquisation, the product should make multi-multi-billion dallors for the company now. However, those 4 fields are crowdy and cowdy more year by year, particularly with generics. It becomes harder and harder for any company to make big money by the new product in these fields.

    Seems FRX has no new choice instead of staying in antipsychotic and COPD -- they never have strong R&D by their own rather than acquisation from others. The company will, almost certainly, lose multi-billion revenue in 2012-2015. They still have more than $2B cash. But using cash to make revenue is not a good option for the company because (1) $2B cash cannot produce $2B revenue in 3 years no matter how good is the product and how good is the marketing, and (2) without enough cash, the marketing effort will face high risks.

    BTW, Carl Ichan's proxy fight will headache the 84 years old Howard Solomon to .....

 

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