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Forest Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • clearseeing1 clearseeing1 Mar 1, 2012 3:32 PM Flag

    Cariprazine may add sinificant value to FRX

    notes from ML:

    Even a “small” antipsychotic moves the needle for FRX
    With positive Phase III schizophrenia data for cariprazine now in hand, FRX
    appears to have a viable antipsychotic. We have not updated our model to include
    value for cariprazine, but we believe the drug could have significant sales
    potential if it is sufficiently differentiated from other drugs in what is a highly
    competitive but huge market. In this note, we discuss some background on
    cariprazine and the class, and describe a few scenarios which may help investors
    assess the value of the product to FRX. We note that even a relatively “small”
    antipsychotic ($250mn year-5 sales) could represent significant value to FRX
    ($4/share of DCF value). We look forward to detailed data later this year to help
    better assess the competitive profile of cariprazine. We expect extreme investor
    apathy to give way to increasing interest as the pipeline matures and the cash
    position grows. Reiterate Buy.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • and now Levomilnacipran !!!! Treatment with levomilnacipran significantly reduced depression symptoms in patients with MDD compared to placebo, as early as week one !

    • frankpostin, usually i don't respond to dumb posts,but yours are the exception. i can tell that you are not in touch with the happenings at frx, before you post try to know what you are saying. hopefully people won't listen to your dribble.

    • Don't forget the hard lessons learned from HGSI and DNDN. Those "DCF value" pumped HGSI and DNDN to sky but the sales (EPS) brought them back to earth. DCF is based on future "peak sales" and it is easy to be inflated. With current healthcare environment, the realistic "peak sales" is usually 50% of "analysts" value. Did Teflaro, Daliresp and Viibryd teach you?

    • "In our view, the Phase III schizophrenia data suggest that efficacy may approach
      that of Abilify and Seroquel at the higher cariprazine doses. It is more difficult to
      compare side effects without detailed data, but cariprazine appears less favorable
      relative to other drugs on some side effects and more favorable on others.
      FRX doesn’t need a blockbuster
      A scenario with launch in 2014 and year-5 sales of $250mn, which equates to
      only 1.4% of 2011 atypical antipsychotic sales, yields a theoretical DCF value of
      roughly $4/share. In our view, peak sales of $250mn seems reasonable (if not
      conservative) for an atypical antipsychotic given recent launches in the class."

 
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