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Forest Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • frankposting frankposting Jul 6, 2012 1:08 PM Flag

    BUY: out or in?

    A few weeks ago, the story was "FRX will be bought out" by AZN.

    Now, the story becomes "FRX will buy in" SLXP.

    Why so many romus? The essential is due to mega patent cliffs.

    However, not only FRX facing mega patent cliff. Actually, almost every mega pharma faces mega patent cliff in these years. All of them are looking to expand own pipeline.

    Then what: a familiar word: competition. Everyone wants to get something good and cheap. But not everyone can have it.

    After AZN acquired AMLN, seens AZN won't acquire FRX in the near future. Acquiring SLXP will cost about $5B but only can add $1 EPS to FRX's own EPS.

    A romur is just a romur.

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    • No quick relief for any mega-patent-cliff, no matter the company is PFE, AZN or FRX.

      Build up a strong pipeline is a cure, but the treatment takes a considerable time and a good luck. FRX is on the right track to expand its pipeline, but still need a good luck. Not every product can be a blockbuster, and not a few years can reach the blockbuster status. In my view, the 9 products pipeline (5 approved and 4 in approving) may not be enough; only one or two may become blockbuster after 5 years from the approval. Don't forgot, FRX's two #$%$ (Lexapro and Namenda) were bought from Lundbeck (a Denish pharma). Lundbeck still have a few qulified candidates in hand, but seems they are not interesting to sell to FRX or others. They are selling those products (and future #$%$) by themself.

      Seems that FRX has no way to cure the two patent-cliffs (lexapro and Namenda) before 2019!!!

 

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