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Forest Laboratories Inc. Message Board

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  • Ricardouno Ricardouno Jun 23, 1998 10:38 PM Flag

    Patent expiration & p/e

    Dear txny, I have been investing in
    pharmaceutical stocks for almost twenty years. I can tell you
    there is nothing that can stimulate these stocks more
    than a blockbuster drug. I remember buying Glaxo prior
    to FDA approval for Zantac many years ago. I had to
    literally explain to brokers what Glaxo was at the time.
    Even if the patent expires after several years, the
    company has usually made so much money and has already
    invested the capital in further research towards other
    successful drug developement or used it to acquired other
    companies with strong drug pipelines. I am not familiar
    with the exact timing for the US drug patent
    expiration on citalopram/celexa. If anyone knows this
    information, please inform others on this board. However, I am
    sure that Forest and its co-marketer Warner Lambert
    have investigated this issue carefully. It seems
    unlikely that Forest would have recruited a sales force,
    now about 850 and that Warner Lambert would have made
    a serious commitment if Celexa was slated for
    patent expiration in the USA in a brief time and would
    be marketed principally as a generic during its drug
    lifetime. Investors in Forest are betting that Celexa will
    receive final approval by the FDA (no certainty, but a
    relatively good bet) and become a major drug. Provided no
    major restrictions or clinical limitations are placed
    on its sale by the FDA they have good reason to
    believe this,,,,, if it is finally approved by the FDA.
    It has reportedly shown significant effectiveness
    and a good side effect profile in Europe. It will be
    an excellent competitor in a vast and expanding
    lucrative market (not to forget it will also offer help to
    many people). Thus investors in FRX believe it has the
    potential to be a blockbuster. If such a scenario proves
    correct the present p/e ratio is irrelevant as
    anticipated earning will shrink the p/e markedly.
    Additionally, Forest's other new products are doing a steady
    and growing business and should further bolster the
    bottom line. Also a few other new product introductions
    are expected over the new few years. Obviously, much
    hinges on first the approval of Citalopram and, if
    approved, its success. Forest will not be a one drug
    company without Celexa, but if it does not have it in its
    arsenal it would be valued a bit less at this time. If,
    as investors hope, citalopram is a blockbuster
    Forest Labs will move up a significant notch from a
    moderate cap pharmaceutical company into a much more
    powerful league. Only time (and the FDA) will tell,,,,,,,,

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    • Does anyone know approximately when FRX will
      receive or not receive approval for Celexa. If not a
      date, maybe within a month or two period. I understand
      the company may have received an approvable letter,
      but I don't believe the stock rallied the day the
      announcement came out, but I could be wrong. Does anyone have
      a feeling as to what the stock may do when the
      company gets a final approval or denial?

    • I buy FRX only because of Celexa. FRX is a
      generic drug company before 1993.

      Tiazac wouldn't
      make much money becuase other anti-hypertension drugs
      are better. (I know that Tiazac is an extend release
      formula, so are other two from Hoest, RPR plus

      FRX's leading cash cow - Aerobid is under high market
      pressure and the SNDA FRX submitted early this year can do
      almost nothing to help its sales.

      Snapton, which
      is to treat Alzheimer's disease, might only make $5
      million a year because of high incidence of side effects.
      (It will get approved in November this year)

      Monurol didn't do good so far. What else?

      Celexa, yea, Celexa, will make FRX like a fly

      PS. 7 years FRX's growth on Celexa is enough for me.


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