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Forest Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • texny texny Jun 23, 1998 1:51 PM Flag

    Patent expiration & p/e

    Since Citalopram/Celexa has been available for a
    number of years in Europe, one might assume that the
    patent has been held for some time already.

    Does
    anyone know when the patent expires?

    Also, the
    p/e of approx. 75 seems pretty high! There seem to be
    quite a lot of optimistic predictions on this board
    about FRX's share price. Is there a legitimate basis
    for these great expectations?

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    • My sources tell me that the drug only has about
      five
      marketable years with a patent expiration in
      2003.
      However, I also understand Forest has patented
      an
      enantiomer (or mirror image) version with a
      longer
      patent. The original patent is set to expire at
      about
      the same time as Prozac. This will increase the
      appeal
      of Celexa to managed care organizations and
      maybe drive
      a Prozac-to-Celexa formulary conversion
      in many cases.
      Look for FRX to be very aggressive
      on pricing in order
      to make a big hit quickly on
      this drug...

      Stingo

      • 2 Replies to stingo22
      • If you all would read the May 30 press release,
        you would know that it does not matter the patient
        date for Celexa. In the press release, Forest
        announced a marketing agreement for the Big Bother of
        Celexa. It is "the active enantiomer of Celexa, which
        will enter clinical studies later this year and is
        patented until the year 2009." If Celexa sells anything
        like it has in Europe, Forest will transfer the Celexa
        sales to the new agent before the patient expires. This
        has been done successfully by all the pharmaceutical
        companies.

        The anti-depressant market in the U.S. is close to 5
        billion dollars. Three of the top ten most prescribed
        drugs in the U.S. are anti-depressants (Prozac #2,
        Zoloft #5, Paxil #7 I think?). When Forest reaches a 10%
        market share with Celexa, it will DOUBLE the size of the
        company's sales.

      • FRX may ony make it even in the first year.

    • Dear txny, I have been investing in
      pharmaceutical stocks for almost twenty years. I can tell you
      there is nothing that can stimulate these stocks more
      than a blockbuster drug. I remember buying Glaxo prior
      to FDA approval for Zantac many years ago. I had to
      literally explain to brokers what Glaxo was at the time.
      Even if the patent expires after several years, the
      company has usually made so much money and has already
      invested the capital in further research towards other
      successful drug developement or used it to acquired other
      companies with strong drug pipelines. I am not familiar
      with the exact timing for the US drug patent
      expiration on citalopram/celexa. If anyone knows this
      information, please inform others on this board. However, I am
      sure that Forest and its co-marketer Warner Lambert
      have investigated this issue carefully. It seems
      unlikely that Forest would have recruited a sales force,
      now about 850 and that Warner Lambert would have made
      a serious commitment if Celexa was slated for
      patent expiration in the USA in a brief time and would
      be marketed principally as a generic during its drug
      lifetime. Investors in Forest are betting that Celexa will
      receive final approval by the FDA (no certainty, but a
      relatively good bet) and become a major drug. Provided no
      major restrictions or clinical limitations are placed
      on its sale by the FDA they have good reason to
      believe this,,,,, if it is finally approved by the FDA.
      It has reportedly shown significant effectiveness
      and a good side effect profile in Europe. It will be
      an excellent competitor in a vast and expanding
      lucrative market (not to forget it will also offer help to
      many people). Thus investors in FRX believe it has the
      potential to be a blockbuster. If such a scenario proves
      correct the present p/e ratio is irrelevant as
      anticipated earning will shrink the p/e markedly.
      Additionally, Forest's other new products are doing a steady
      and growing business and should further bolster the
      bottom line. Also a few other new product introductions
      are expected over the new few years. Obviously, much
      hinges on first the approval of Citalopram and, if
      approved, its success. Forest will not be a one drug
      company without Celexa, but if it does not have it in its
      arsenal it would be valued a bit less at this time. If,
      as investors hope, citalopram is a blockbuster
      Forest Labs will move up a significant notch from a
      moderate cap pharmaceutical company into a much more
      powerful league. Only time (and the FDA) will tell,,,,,,,,

      • 2 Replies to Ricardouno
      • I buy FRX only because of Celexa. FRX is a
        generic drug company before 1993.

        Tiazac wouldn't
        make much money becuase other anti-hypertension drugs
        are better. (I know that Tiazac is an extend release
        formula, so are other two from Hoest, RPR plus
        ACEs)

        FRX's leading cash cow - Aerobid is under high market
        pressure and the SNDA FRX submitted early this year can do
        almost nothing to help its sales.

        Snapton, which
        is to treat Alzheimer's disease, might only make $5
        million a year because of high incidence of side effects.
        (It will get approved in November this year)


        Monurol didn't do good so far. What else?

        Only
        Celexa, yea, Celexa, will make FRX like a fly
        pig.

        PS. 7 years FRX's growth on Celexa is enough for me.

      • Does anyone know approximately when FRX will
        receive or not receive approval for Celexa. If not a
        date, maybe within a month or two period. I understand
        the company may have received an approvable letter,
        but I don't believe the stock rallied the day the
        announcement came out, but I could be wrong. Does anyone have
        a feeling as to what the stock may do when the
        company gets a final approval or denial?

 

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