Since Citalopram/Celexa has been available for a
number of years in Europe, one might assume that the
patent has been held for some time already.
anyone know when the patent expires?
p/e of approx. 75 seems pretty high! There seem to be
quite a lot of optimistic predictions on this board
about FRX's share price. Is there a legitimate basis
for these great expectations?
My sources tell me that the drug only has about
marketable years with a patent expiration in
However, I also understand Forest has patented
enantiomer (or mirror image) version with a
patent. The original patent is set to expire at
the same time as Prozac. This will increase the
of Celexa to managed care organizations and
a Prozac-to-Celexa formulary conversion
in many cases.
Look for FRX to be very aggressive
on pricing in order
to make a big hit quickly on
If you all would read the May 30 press release,
you would know that it does not matter the patient
date for Celexa. In the press release, Forest
announced a marketing agreement for the Big Bother of
Celexa. It is "the active enantiomer of Celexa, which
will enter clinical studies later this year and is
patented until the year 2009." If Celexa sells anything
like it has in Europe, Forest will transfer the Celexa
sales to the new agent before the patient expires. This
has been done successfully by all the pharmaceutical
The anti-depressant market in the U.S. is close to 5
billion dollars. Three of the top ten most prescribed
drugs in the U.S. are anti-depressants (Prozac #2,
Zoloft #5, Paxil #7 I think?). When Forest reaches a 10%
market share with Celexa, it will DOUBLE the size of the
Dear txny, I have been investing in
pharmaceutical stocks for almost twenty years. I can tell you
there is nothing that can stimulate these stocks more
than a blockbuster drug. I remember buying Glaxo prior
to FDA approval for Zantac many years ago. I had to
literally explain to brokers what Glaxo was at the time.
Even if the patent expires after several years, the
company has usually made so much money and has already
invested the capital in further research towards other
successful drug developement or used it to acquired other
companies with strong drug pipelines. I am not familiar
with the exact timing for the US drug patent
expiration on citalopram/celexa. If anyone knows this
information, please inform others on this board. However, I am
sure that Forest and its co-marketer Warner Lambert
have investigated this issue carefully. It seems
unlikely that Forest would have recruited a sales force,
now about 850 and that Warner Lambert would have made
a serious commitment if Celexa was slated for
patent expiration in the USA in a brief time and would
be marketed principally as a generic during its drug
lifetime. Investors in Forest are betting that Celexa will
receive final approval by the FDA (no certainty, but a
relatively good bet) and become a major drug. Provided no
major restrictions or clinical limitations are placed
on its sale by the FDA they have good reason to
believe this,,,,, if it is finally approved by the FDA.
It has reportedly shown significant effectiveness
and a good side effect profile in Europe. It will be
an excellent competitor in a vast and expanding
lucrative market (not to forget it will also offer help to
many people). Thus investors in FRX believe it has the
potential to be a blockbuster. If such a scenario proves
correct the present p/e ratio is irrelevant as
anticipated earning will shrink the p/e markedly.
Additionally, Forest's other new products are doing a steady
and growing business and should further bolster the
bottom line. Also a few other new product introductions
are expected over the new few years. Obviously, much
hinges on first the approval of Citalopram and, if
approved, its success. Forest will not be a one drug
company without Celexa, but if it does not have it in its
arsenal it would be valued a bit less at this time. If,
as investors hope, citalopram is a blockbuster
Forest Labs will move up a significant notch from a
moderate cap pharmaceutical company into a much more
powerful league. Only time (and the FDA) will tell,,,,,,,,
I buy FRX only because of Celexa. FRX is a
generic drug company before 1993.
make much money becuase other anti-hypertension drugs
are better. (I know that Tiazac is an extend release
formula, so are other two from Hoest, RPR plus
FRX's leading cash cow - Aerobid is under high market
pressure and the SNDA FRX submitted early this year can do
almost nothing to help its sales.
is to treat Alzheimer's disease, might only make $5
million a year because of high incidence of side effects.
(It will get approved in November this year)
Monurol didn't do good so far. What else?
Celexa, yea, Celexa, will make FRX like a fly
PS. 7 years FRX's growth on Celexa is enough for me.
Does anyone know approximately when FRX will
receive or not receive approval for Celexa. If not a
date, maybe within a month or two period. I understand
the company may have received an approvable letter,
but I don't believe the stock rallied the day the
announcement came out, but I could be wrong. Does anyone have
a feeling as to what the stock may do when the
company gets a final approval or denial?