drugs stocks are out of favor in place of the cyclicals and techs......forest isn't cheap even now, they still sell for >32x march 2000 estimates.all drugs stocks are out of favor though
If you're talking about Celexa, I've heard just
the opposite. It is my understanding, by way of my
shrink, that the majority of new SSRI perscriptions are
being written for this drug. I can't figure this price
drop on no news whatsoever. Anyone hear anything?
Anyone practicing medicine knows that the FDA
approval for similar drugs in the same class is only an
FDA formality. Celexa is probably the best SSRI
available today on the basis of side effect profile, use
with other drugs metabolized by the liver (most), and
cost. The professional literature long ago equated the
SSRI's for similar use.
I think the street will
be surprised by its current popularity with
psychiatrists who are the most knowledgable users of this drug.
Eventually the GP's will also embrace Celexa because it is
the least complicated SSRI for them to proscribe. If
Forest captures 10% of a $6 billion market, they will
have 600 million in sales, added to their other
products will come close to $1 billion, double last year.
I am guessing a 20% market share for Celexa @ $1.2
billion by the end of 2000, $400 mm for other products,
40% margin and 640 million profits. With 80mm shares
out that comes out to $8 per share. At a 20:1 PE the
stock should be @ $160, four times its present price.
OK Here's the deal� no more numbers, no more
statistics I'm just going to give it to you
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Celexa is doing great. Market share is 6.9% and growing. As a frx shareholder, I could not be more pleased. Of course todays drop hurt but imo it has nothing to do with the fundamentals of frx.