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Forest Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • basey_333 basey_333 Mar 15, 2000 10:22 PM Flag

    A question and three cents worth

    I'm new to this board interested in FRX, wanted
    to know what % of overall revenue is Celexa
    producing? Also, and only my personal observation and
    experience: I have been one of those "treatment resistant"
    cases of Major Depression (still despise that word as
    it is completely non-descriptive and unjust to the
    disease) for over a decade.

    Prozac, Zoloft, MAOIs,
    ECT therapy (you name it) have been met with varying,
    but little success. I was put on Celexa a year and a
    half ago and it has been nothing short of a miracle
    for me. As to some of what I've read on this board,
    I'm guessing the talk of "apathy" means to describe
    the typical malaise experienced with some
    antidepressants (they take away the deep, horrifying pit of "it",
    but leave one feeling flat and take away the ability
    to experience emotion. I've had this experience with
    some (namely Prozac), but Celexa doesn't take away the
    feeling of being human and has very mild side effects.
    Also, I've been under the impression that Celexa was at
    least as expensive, if not more, than other
    antidepressants.

    The two doctors I've been in contact with have
    said that they've experienced nothing but success with
    introducing this drug to more and more patients. I'm sorry to
    drag on so long, but just wanted to give some personal
    info on a drug that is actually saving lives and is
    important to Forest and all the longs here.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "When you compare FRX to WLA/PFE/PHA, other
      pharmas growing about the same rate as FRX, it's actually
      fairly valued."

      FRX is growing in excess of 50 %
      this year and will probably be well in excess of 30%
      next year. WLA/PHE isn't growing that fast. PHA and
      PHE are much larger companies. FRX is much, much
      smaller, and it deserves a premium. And people are
      thinking that FRX will blow past the earning estimates,
      even though the earnings haven't been offically raised
      yet.... the stock is acting like they will be raised
      based on the higher than expected sales of Celexa.

    • The best prospect in FRX's pipeline is probably
      the new drug they just licensed from Merckle GmbH for
      the treatment of osteoarthritis.

      "ML3000 is a
      new entity in a novel class of dual-acting,
      anti-inflammatory drugs called COX/LO inhibitors. These drugs
      simultaneously inhibit the enzymes cyclooxygenase (COX) and
      5-lipoxygenase (LO), both of which are involved in the
      inflammatory process. ML3000 demonstrated an overall safety
      profile similar to placebo at doses which were effective
      in the treatment of osteoarthritis. The product
      entered Phase III studies in Europe earlier this
      year."
      per their press releases

      This has the
      potential to be a blockbuster as seen by the huge success
      of both Celebrex and Vioxx in the treatment of
      osteoarthritis. This really is a huge market because unlike many
      other diseases, there is no cure for the long-term
      degeneration seen in osteoarthritis. The only treatment
      therefore, is chronic pain/inflammation management.

      I
      went ahead and bought a few shares today.

      Jay

    • According to LLY's last 10K:
      "The United
      States compound patent covering Prozac expires in
      February 2001 and a patent for the method of use of the
      compound expires in December 2003."

      I believe that
      Barr Labs among others are suing LLY trying to get a
      generic of Prozac out sooner... who knows what will
      happen.

      As to the direction of my possible investment, I
      would go long if anything. I know that FRX is richly
      valued compared to MRK/JNJ/LLY/etc, but I think that
      even with the uncertainties out there that Celexa
      should drive their growth for the next 2-3 years anyway.
      When you compare FRX to WLA/PFE/PHA, other pharmas
      growing about the same rate as FRX, it's actually fairly
      valued.

      In my opinion, FRX is not over/under valued right
      now, but right where it should be... the biggest
      question in my mind is can they maintain their multiple
      with drugs in their pipeline. I'm pretty sure WLA/PFE
      combo will have no problem, but right now FRX is being
      driven by Celexa alone.

      Jay.

    • What is "legal marketing exclusivity"?

      And
      Jay, are you considering long, or my side?

      And,
      Re: industry litigation is ubiquitous (sp?).
      everybody sues everybody for everything in this business.
      Most suits are intended to delay and deter
      competitors, but often have little merit.

      Prozac off
      patent in 2001 or 2002? What will that do for pricing
      SSRI drugs? I think it means prices go down.

    • I know Celexa is a successful drug, but I decided
      to short FRX after seeing a huge insider stock
      registration: CEO 1.3m shares, Pres.: 300k shares. In dollars,
      that's about $140m of stock. When does Celexa go off
      patent? Won't that event essentially crush the
      profitability as FRX loses share AND prices decline? Also, when
      does Prozac go off patent? None of the SSRI drugs have
      faced generic substitution or generic competition
      before. When that happens, won't the historical levels of
      profitability decline dramatically as the drug firms engage in
      expensive battles for market share? FRX should be
      over-valued based on a 45 p/e, especially if the earnings
      growth goes into reverse after Celexa, Prozac, and
      perhaps others go off patent.
      I acknowledge that my
      research is incomplete and I jumped in perhaps
      prematurely. Am I missing something?

      • 2 Replies to Eggplant101
      • Selling by insiders doesn't always mean that the
        stock is headed lower. Howard Solomon, the head of FRX
        sold 260,000 shares in November, 1999 at around 51-52
        and now six months later the shares are significantly
        higher. Sometimes when one holds allot of shares earned
        through options, profits are taken periodically. So as an
        indicator I don't think its thats strong. Celexa is set to
        go off patent in a few years but the company is
        working on extending its franchise with an improved
        version of the drug to take its place. Because of its
        favorable side effect and drug interaction profile versus
        other SSRI's physicians may not
        jump at prescribing
        modestly lower priced generics if they are available.
        Additionally, patients who are having success on Celexa will
        not be switched to other brands for obvious
        reasons.
        Presently, the sales trends are strong. Also, the break-up
        of the Warner Lambert co-marketing agreement should
        increase the bottom line flow of profits for FRX. This
        cash can be plowed into other new products and
        collaborations to extend its pipeline. Shorting stocks, in my
        opinion, is gambling. Like the weather, there are too many
        variables and extraneous unknowns to make a reliably sound
        decision and put your money on it.

      • time gates and dell sold their company shares - that was a buy signal if there ever was one

    • Amy Hogan of Blackrock Mid-Cap Growth Fund talked
      about FRX on CNBC's taking
      stock.

      http://network54.com/Hide/Forum/message?forumid=53451&messageid=953901391

      FRX will terminate its co-promotion agreement with
      WLA regarding Celexa and regain full exclusive rights
      to the drug.

    • Miracles do happen, and I'm glad to hear your
      success!!, I have a brother who suffers from depression, so
      the info is very helpful. Also, I'm not much of a
      fundamentalist (purely technical) and to get some feedback about
      FRX and its products is a bonus...
      Thanx, and good
      luck...

 

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