As a Clinical Psychologist, I can tell you that
doctors do not prescribe anti-depressants randomly (i.e.,
the cheapest product--even though insurance companies
might pressure them to do so). More to the point,
Celexa has clinically outperformed Prozac (and any other
Prozac generic)with fewer side-effects and quicker
clinical improvements. Thus, clinically, Celexa has shown
to be superior to Prozac, and any Prozac generic,
and doctors will continue to prescibe it. This market
response, needless to say, makes me clinically depressed!
Amazing how you know the outcome of an unfiled
court petition. Please, oh informed one, tell us your
stock picks. Do you declare your profits in the quarter
prior to earning them? What will LLY be next Friday?
Ohh, please tell us.
In My Humble Opinion, FRX would
bounce back up
to previous high
by next week. This prediction is
based on history.
With George Bush leading Gore
polls, Drug stocks could move up
anticipation. The positive trend
for drugs could start right
labor day. Remember that the market
always moves in
advance of 'news'
(Bush winning Nove election).
LLY has 60 days to file appeal. Could be
adjuticated shortly after if appeal is denied. Only can drag
out if they are granted appeal and that is iffy since
the appeals court reversed the lower court decision.
Pretty obvious you are still smoking. If FRX loses
significant market share, yes, they may roll over and die. If
will be questionable if the next generation of SSRI
will be marketed if generic is available.
I have been involved in like situations. Do you
think Lilly is going to roll over and die. Did you see
what the stock price did today. Worst CASE frx GETS
THE GROWTH FOR ANOTHER 15 MONTHS. DO YOU THINK FRX IS
GOING TO ROLL OVER AND DIE?
I'm a neuropharmacologist with a PhD from a
Psychiatry Dept on the mechanism of action of
antidepressants (and neuroleptics.. The bottom line is the
prescribing practices of psychiatrists. I'd imagine that most
patients on Celexa have been on Prozac (or Zoloft) before,
and they are now on Celexa precisely because of the
side effect profile. As you know, they would never
return a patient to Prozac simply because it might be
available in a generic form. That is not the nature of
psychiatry, and thus will not be the effect on revenues.
I was once a SEPR holder who bailed on fears of
precisely this kind of court ruling. But this does not
spill over to FRX in any significant way. If people
want to be worried about SSRIs, then worry about NBIX
with it's CRF antagonist. But that is years and years
As a practicing psychiatrist who uses ssri's,
snri's, etc extensively, I think that the Prozac ruling
is problematic for all the pharm co's with ssri's.
PFE and SKB, and for snri, AHP, will not be as hurt
by this ruling as much as FRX because their drug
portfolio is huge. FRX is deriving the lion share of its
increasing earnings from Celexa sales. When Prozac becomes
generic fluoxetine, a number of things will happen
simultaneously that will be detrimental to FRX.
Care formulary companies, and insurers will expect
physicians to try fluoxetine first. The reality is that in
20%-30% of the cases, fluoxetine is perfectly adequate.
In about 30% of the other cases, no other ssri will
be better than fluoxetine. In probably 40-50% of the
cases, another ssri will have a better side effect
profile, or response efficacy.
With the advent of
the deeply discounted fluoxetine generic price (my
guess is $.30-$.40 per pill versus $2.75 per 20mg
Prozac cap), there will be competitive pricing pressure
on the other ssri's. The market that Clexa is trying
to claim is not only the disaffected other SSRI
users, which, by now, is probably saturated, but they
also want to be the first line choice of prescribers.
In order to hold market share under this scenario,
they will have to significantly reduce pricing,
severely cutting into profits at a time when FRX has just
recently added huge amounts to its marketing and rep
While FRX has some apparatnly excellents options in the
pipeline, their most promising is the alternative COX
inhibitor, memantine, and Dexloxiglumide, they need to pass
some part of the regulatory process. For memantine,
they need at least a NDA, for they other two they are
in phase II and III. The startup time for almost all
new pharmaceuticals is many quarters, so my guess is
that before you see acceptance and prescription of
these new products, you will see a reversal of the
earnings momentum and a squeeze from expenses because of
the need to support the recently expanded rep
FRX also has, what appears to be probably the best
management in the industry from my perspective. Solomon is
really a superb CEO who has vision and a steady hand.
FRX also has a presence in the generic producers
market and stands to benefit from more demand in the
Overall, I think FRX is an
outstanding investment in the long run, but is significantly
overpriced in the short to intermediate term given this
significant setback. The timing was just terrible for
BTW, I am interested in seeing the what happens with
l-fluoxetine and r-citralopram, but I am really wondering
whether there will be much significant difference in the
side-effect profile to warrant change in physician
prescribing habits. I have just not yet seen the info in the
professional literature and this makes me wonder about SEPR,
LLY and FRX's claims. If these formulations are
significantly superior, for example, for sexual side-effect
profile, etc, then regardless of the inroads of the
generics, there will be a mass return of physicians to the
traded and newly patented formulations. So if SEPR
really has something in its isomer formulations, they
have nothing to worry about.
In the meantime, I
unfortunately think stockholders will likely see $50 before
they see $120.