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ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. Message Board

  • bobdavis4 bobdavis4 Feb 8, 2013 9:27 AM Flag



    From a 2/6/13 article written by Josh Arnold on ULTA to read more just google - josh arnold ulta

    "As you can see, given my assumptions, the current fair value of Ulta shares today is about $94, or roughly 6% lower than today's price. Some investors probably feel that shares are priced for perfection, but there are some reasons why I feel the shares' risk is to the upside. First, Ulta has proven it can execute exceedingly well in opening new stores and integrating them into the system, resulting in massive profitability. The rapidly expanding store base will be a boon to earnings in the coming years, more so than the 24% growth rate analysts are expecting. Second, I believe gross margins will continue to expand, as they have for the past four years. As I said earlier, no one knows where the top is for GM%, but we haven't seen it yet since it keeps rising each year. Third, Ulta is continuously making its real estate investments more productive each year, resulting in higher sales and profitability. All of these factors, coupled with my subjective belief that Ulta has a management team that is above reproach, and I certainly believe the shares have significant upside for long-term holders.

    The easy money has been made in Ulta during the run up from $12 to $100, but there is much more left in this company. Given that the shares trade near their all-time high currently, I would suggest waiting for a pullback in the $90 area before adding them to your portfolio, but this is a high growth company that has carved out a very profitable niche with loyal customers and expanding margins. This, coupled with exploding revenue growth, makes Ulta the best retailer to own today."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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