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Trident Microsystems, Inc. Message Board

  • investing_rules investing_rules Jul 29, 2011 12:07 AM Flag

    My Take on the Q2 Conference Call

    I was pleasantly surprised with Bami on the CC. He announced a very organized 6 pronged approach to the turnaround.

    Some highlights from CC:

    > felt the bottom had been reached in 2011 and should grow from here - focusing on reducing the break-even level through the end of 2011
    > used 18 million in cash for Q2 less than projected
    > 3-12% growth in sequential Revenues expected for Q3
    > Gross margins expected in Q3 of 34-36%
    > 8-14% reduction in Operating Expenses (42-45 mill range) for Q3
    > continued reduction in operating expenses through year end with 2012 Operating expenses to be under 40 mill per quarter with growing revenues.
    > Cash balance at end of Q3 should be 30-40 mill if not higher depending on additional licensing agreements
    > building in Shanghai on the market - deal expected to be signed by year end on lease back.
    > new products launching in Q3 - Q1 of 2012 already products showing interest from Tier1

    ** They seem excited about the turnaround and eager to see it take place.

    I don't see the price going much lower! JMHO

    *** Per Bami we have seen the bottom in 2011.


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    • What it all really boils down to is whether the company will turn itself around. The previous CEO, Philip Geyres, made comments that would have led one to believe that the guidance for Q3 would show evidence of a turnaround. This turned out not to be the case. Q3 sales are projected to be a mere 3% to 12% above the dismal sales for Q2. Non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be between $16 million and $19 million, and cash reserves will decrease by something between $11 million and $21 million during the quarter. This presumably includes the positive effect of the new cash generated by the sale of the company's Shanghai building. This does not a turnaround make. The best evidence of a turnaround will be when cash flow from operations becomes positive. This was supposed to happen during the second half of 2010, according to Sylvia. She left the company and was replaced by Philip, who said that this was supposed to happen in the second half of 2011. He was replaced by Bami, who isn't saying when cash flow will turn positive, though his comments make it pretty clear that it won't be in 2011.

      So this means that shareholders who have patiently been holding multiple years for a turnaround, as I have, need to now make a choice as to whether to hold yet another couple of quarters in the hope of seeing light at the end of the tunnel, or whether to cut their losses and sell now. I'm working on that decision myself.

      • 4 Replies to goutah3006
      • Go sell! What are you waiting for!!

        For sure TRIDENT is turning around. Some turnaround stories take time and are slower than others. But definitely TRID is making a comeback. It is a stock to hold for the coming weeks and months.

      • goutah guy: let's take a good look at your deperate post.

        >>> goutah guy:
        The previous CEO, Philip Geyres, made comments that would have led one to believe that the guidance for Q3 would show evidence of a turnaround. This turned out not to be the case.

        That's an outright lie. They are still saying 2nd half is going to be much better and they mentioned all the things going to happen in 2nd half. All very good. The new CEO also proclaimed that Q2 was the bottom. Go and reread the CC call. No go and listen this time.


        >>> goutah guy:
        ...This presumably includes the positive effect of the new cash generated by the sale of the company's Shanghai building...

        No it is your presumption. Your urge to bash. You don't know when. And any smart company would do that no matter what the financials are. I work for a very big world-wide company that does that all the time. It is just prudent.


        >>> goutah guy:
        The best evidence of a turnaround will be when cash flow from operations becomes positive. This was supposed to happen during the second half of 2010, according to Sylvia.

        This really shows your desperation when you bring up the past and Sylvia. That is very old news. The good that came out of that is that she is gone. Over and done. Another plus now. The company is in much better hands.


        >>> goutah guy:
        He was replaced by Bami, who isn't saying when cash flow will turn positive, though his comments make it pretty clear that it won't be in 2011.

        Another assumption on your part. What he did make clear is that the company IS turning around in the second half and all kinds of good things will happen in 2nd half that affect the bottom line. He was very confident when he said Q2 was the bottom. You really should "listen" to the conference call. You keep saying you read it. Are you afraid to "listen". Fact is you have....and you know how good it sounds for the future here on out. That's why you are bashing. You think we are stupid to believe you when you spend so much time posting all your negative and doubt BS and say you are long. And now you are in overtime mode posting and repeating all the negative stuff from way back.

        I know you say you have me on ignore...i don't really care, but your personality and pride won't allow it. I know you see all my posts.

        The CC and Outlook was very clear. Bottom was Q2 and all the improvement is still on track. Products are very good, and they are thinking way ahead for the purpose and future products. OK you and other bashers will keep doing your job, but your money making shorting days are over. You also have posted that you have owned TRID way back at 20 something. It was your short cash cow for a long time and you are having trouble now because it is bottoming out. You maybe own the shares but you are covered short position somehow.

        Goutah guy ... I'll help you with your decision. It's a no brainer if you believe all that you post. SELL, LEAVE! You are wasting your time here on this board and with TRID if you believe what you post. You're credibility is shot. You are a liar, confidence man and deceiver. Or you are extremely dumb to hold on to a stock from 20 and consider yourself long. But you lied about that. You're not the typical Mormon in your area.

        I might change my handle to latlong2941. What do you think goutah guy?

      • Hey goutah guy. Here is what you should do. Sell your TRID. Leave this board and apply for more farm subsidies.
        You should be able to live off that.

      • Hey mister NWC .... you sound really desperate to bash. Repeating old news and the history of TRID. How come you keep repeating yourself. Did the CC call sound too good and now you feel you have to work overtime bashing?

        Please do yourself and us a favor and sell and forever leave this board.

    • Well, I've now read the transcript of the conference call. It's a mixed bag, but the takeaway is that Trident is a desperate little company that's trying to claw its way to positive operating cash flow, which isn't likely to happen very soon.

      Bami seems pretty keen on himself, but Anadigics actually had a pretty poor bottom-line record when he was CEO there. And he used too many buzzwords for my taste. But he did point out some positive facts about Trident's product line, and didn't pull any punches in pointing out some major mistakes that previous management had made. He even seemed to question the wisdom of the NXP and Micronas acquisitions, if I'm interpreting his remarks correctly. But he sounds determined to make the best of a tough situation. So I remain undecided as to what to do with my shares.

      Latlong thinks I've been shorting Trident all the way down from the $3 level it was at a couple of years ago. He attributes too much wisdom to me. If I had been shorting, as Latlong claims, I could have made a lot of money. In reality, I've been a long the whole time, albeit a skeptical one. In case Latlong hasn't been paying attention to my posts, I'll repeat my mantra that Trident is a speculative turnaround play. It has been for quite some time now, and continues to be.

      • 3 Replies to goutah3006
      • What you gonna post when all the good things start hitting the bottom line in q3, q4 and next year? Just like outlook said in q2 and outlook this report. Those things are done deal. You completely ignored all that and try to paint this bleak picture for the future, when in reality the future looks better every quarter.

      • Your pompous proclamations and posts are the same. Your tactic is the same. You post on here like everybody waits for your opinion and what you think.

        You're short ... its obvious sly bashing that you do. Or you are the dumbest investor of all time. You draw false conclusions and try to plant the same seeds of doubt over and over. It would be prudent for you to listen to the cc call also. Quit making stuff up that was not said.

        Broken record. They are on track, met the outlook goals and have started execution to continue the recovery. I know you and the others wanted to have an extremely bad report this quarter, but you didn't get it.
        I've seen you do the same on other boards, post like you know everything and try to become the board expert. Fact is ... you lie a lot and pretend to know when all you do is make stuff up. I know your personality type very well.

        And whatever happened to truenorth guy eh?

        YOU ARE A LIAR AND CON-ARTIST on every board you post on.

      • CEO would not be able to get a feel for at least 3 quarters
        to be able to see the business direction. But a company
        licensing away key patents / crown jewels to meet quarter numbers?

        latlong better become latverylong!

    • Many pitch forks have multiple prongs as well. It's the bottom line that counts, not some imaginary figures.

    • I haven't been able to get the CC to play on my computer yet. So thanks for the summary.

      It appears that they are no longer talking about breaking even in the second half of 2011 on a cash flow basis, as the interim CEO Philip Geyres had talked about. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

      Talk of "bottoming out" is all well and fine. But it's now pretty clear that Trident hasn't bottomed out. Bottoming out does not consist of going from declining sales to increasing sales. Bottoming out consists of going from negative cash flow to positive cash flow. It now looks like this won't happen in the second half of 2011, as Philip Geyres seemed to be predicting. That's probably a big reason why the stock is down 10% today. Some shareholders have probably grown tired of being told that positive cash flow is "just over the horizon", only to have the horizon recede with each passing quarter.

      Continued reduction in operating expenses likely means that the 49 job openings currently available are replacement openings rather than new openings.

      Selling their Shanghai building and leasing it back is the sort of thing a company does when it's in pretty serious trouble. Electroglas, another speculative turnaround play I dabbled in years ago, did exactly the same thing during its final couple of years in business.

      3% - 12% growth in sales in Q3 compared with the terrible Q2 sales seems pretty anemic.

      Of course management "seems excited about the turnaround." It's management's job to put a positive spin on the situation, regardless of how bad it may be.

      I'll reserve full judgement until I listen to the call. At that point I'll have to decide whether to sell my shares or continue to hold.

      • 2 Replies to goutah3006
      • You're full of BS and HS goutah guy. PLEASE sell you and leave this board!

        If you own any shares you wouldn't post the way you do. YOU ARE A LIAR AND CON ARTIST.

      • My question is where are they growing the sales in Q3. We know the sales of LCD's and STB are slow. The OEM's are losing money and will come back demanding price reductions. With such low sales they cannot get the power to reduce their purchased wafer prices which is their highest cost. I have not listened to the conference call as well, are there any detailed specifics, order intake level for the quarter, new business acquisition that points to sales growth.

    • Agree. Not to mention the AH Licensing Deal just announced...funny how the PR came out right after the earnings release. Even before this, stock was way undervalued.

      I lucked out and was able to grab some more last night AH at $0.665.