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Imperial Holdings, Inc. Message Board

  • fidotrader fidotrader Sep 10, 2013 9:52 AM Flag

    Long and Short

    As is this case with any investment I can see the bull and bear case for this equity As a trader this is what I look for
    This is a 2 sided coin but in any trade it is always about industry and management
    I trade a substantial portfolio and have over 30 years experience trading ....this is my definition of a #$%$ Shoot ...a roll of the dice but one you could definitely make money on I will be both long and eventually super short this stock

    I do believe that the rights offering could be a short term catalyst to send the stock price higher.The added liquidity will help short term but this will lead to other questions down the road IE true burn rate cost of maintaining premiums cap-ex and so on. Depending on how fast they burn through this will determine when they will have to come back again to do another capital raise and Yes they will need to do multiple raises to keep this model going IMO all of this will eventually weigh on the company.The chart has some work to do here as the moving averages converge but again a rising ship floats all boats we are in a liquidity induced market that is strapped for yield this will move higher and give me the shot at what I think will be the best short in the market

    There are questions about the valuation of this company no matter which model you use so in my mind there cannot be a true value because no model can correctly predict this valuation.

    Whether it based on what % they own of any given policy or on a waterfall basis or whether the premium outlay verse mortality rate even using a waterfall model there is know way to correctly value the parts
    As well add into that the various equities and SPAC and it becomes very convoluted
    I also have management questions the SEC investigation is not closed and with other investigations still continuing I believe where there is smoke there will be fire

    So I have a suspect valuation with a suspect management
    Again there is NO WAY to value this model but I do see it heading lowe

 
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