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Geron Corporation (GERN) Message Board

  • posting_clown posting_clown Dec 5, 2012 12:35 PM Flag

    13 out of 14 ET patients had a "complete response"

     

    "Complete response (CR)- a complete disappearance of the disease. No disease is evident on examination, scans or other tests."

    This is why the PPS isn't 60 cents right now. This is a significant result. The one patient that did not have a complete response had a partial response.

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    • Hematological malignancies account for 9.5% of new cancer diagnoses in the United States. It is estimated that 1,638,910 men and women will be diagnosed with cancer in 2012. The number of hematological malignancy cases per year = about 156,000. If ET priced in line with another biopharma drug, herceptin, at $70,000 per year, the potential market for ET = about $10 billion per year.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to jobr01
      • Note that Imetelstat will not be the only treatment available for the hematological malignancies just a few years down the road; there will be alternatives!! This company can't stick its neck only in one product at a time like this when hundreds of outfits all over the globe (some even far mightier than Geron) are pretty active in finding cancer cure. Geron had global top position in the hESC arena; but, in the oncology arena, there are hundreds of competitors and Geron's name is not in the top ten! These bozos must have adequate foresight to maintain company's revenue stream for several decades not just for a few years, if the compnay is to survive!! The two bozos thus, in my view, are unfit to lead the company!

    • Steve Kelsey indicates that ET presentation materials (and others? Imetelstat in Multiple Myeloma?GRN1005 in Breast Ca?) will be featured in GERN website this weekend.

      Imetelstat has shown very impressive clinical data in ET and it is the subject of an oral presentation on 12/9 during ASH, the ASCO equivalence in hematology. Oral presentation is always better than poster presentation. Based on what I can detect from the Tuesday CC, imetetstat will have a very interesting (if not important) addition in hematology. ASH is the place for imetetstat to shine.

      Regarding GRN1005, GERN's rejection of this prodrug is based on "lack of confirmed data for CNS penetration" in "very limited patients(?)". My feeling is if GERN presents the breast data on the website this weekend, we may still see a lot of PRs and CRs, as reported by AngioChem (before). GERN's argument for rejection is lack of CNS tissue levels. I think AngioChem may not fully accept this argument. If this whole line of argument is bias one way or another, what is the truth for rejecting GRN1005? My thinking is GRN1005 is rejected by GERN and returned to AngioChem for other reasons. I think funding is one reason, as well as future royalty. I think after ET data and use of imetetstat as a single agent in maintenace therapy after massive debulking of solid tumors (by surgery and/or chemo) are fully understood, GERN decides to focus fully in imetetstat as originally planned. GERN may want to fully develop imetetstat in the next 2 years to a point that would worth more value than it is now. GRN1005 interfers this plan and the company has found a way to get rid of the project., so that there is more money left for imetetstat.

      JMHO.

      • 2 Replies to franshei
      • ""GERN's argument for rejection is lack of CNS tissue levels.""
        This seems rather odd since in a CC not long ago Steve Kelsey specifically said they were getting good penetration of the targetted brain tissue at levels sufficient to work.
        If this was in the Phase I trial I can only think the diference would be the dosing level in the Phase I was higher, but if so why didn't they get the same DLT's that required the Phase II dosing to be lowered.
        I really am having a hard time understanding how Phase I trial data can look good followed by Phas II data looking so bad.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • The best Phase I results for GRN1005 was at dosing of 650mg however when I saw they had to chang the dosing down to 550 due to DLT's, a level that in Phase I had not had good responses I was concerned.
        My concern appears to have been justified.
        It really is a pity that Geron diverted a large amount of its resources to license and then take GRN1005 to Phase II trials all for nothing.
        Those same resources could have allowed the stem cell programs to have continued, although the FDA foot dragging on dose escalation would maybe still have doomed the OPC1 trial.

    • The flip side of the coin is that it isn't $60 either.

      Just didn't move much!

    • Hey clown, whats the market for this one indication. Just curious. Steve

      Sentiment: Hold

 
GERN
2.38+0.05(+2.15%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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