Geron is at its lowest point in memory. Current cash enough to last three years during which a lot can happen. Solid tumor program is in the tank. Current enterprise value about 50 M perhaps 20-30 of that is the value of the stem cell program (that's a WAG) to BTX. That leaves perhaps17 cents/share in value of the imetelstat program. Now look at the liquid cancer cell data so far: 1. VERY impressive primary thrombocythemia data possibly justifying development for this indication (although there is good treatment already on the market, this might be better) 2. Confirmation of the myeloid precursor target from the myeloma data. 3. Unknown data as yet in pvera but if positive might support hope for effects in myelofibrosis etc. 4. Some small chance that other tumors might be affected. 5. Still pending is NIH study and Mayo study. 5. AML, a terminal horrible disease a potential target as well as the other myeloid diseases. So if Geron were liquidated tomorrow (some might feel that's a good idea) and the imetelstat program were valued at zero, you would lose about 17 cents off the current share value. Sell if you want. These estimates are truly WAG, if you want to suggest more accurate numbers please do. I think its worth waiting for ASH at the end of the year at which time Geron will have spent about 20 cents/share more to stay alive and develop better data (and find a buyer). bp
I agree the possibiity there may be value in at least the hematic area but the planned glacial pace of development with an expected bleed down of price for possibly the next couple of years is more than I could take.
Good summary Andrew and because all of you wrote about above, I increased my position on both Thursday and Friday of last week. Most of the top scientists in this field have indicated that telomerase inhibition is just at the formative stage of cancer treatment and once the right combos of disease and dosing are found then GRN163L will be a major player in the war on cancer.