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Geron Corporation (GERN) Message Board

  • end2war end2war Nov 6, 2013 10:49 PM Flag

    The risk of loss is high with the upcoming announcement so everyone is on pins and needles!

    If you are long, you could lose 25% to 80% of everything you have invested in one day! That could hurt. If you are short, you could lose 200% to almost 400% of your investment because if GERN hits a home run the Price could hit $15! There is not stopping a short loss other than covering and they better be quick!

    Everyone that holds this stock has risk; but slow moving shorts could get decimated! I am starting to feel sorry for the shorts, LOL.

    I think we could have 10 or more CRs and PRs, and some of these could have duration of almost 1 year! Yes, there might be zero CRs and only a few (or Zero) PRs, but Scarlett's coy comments seems to have excluded two goose eggs for CRs and PRs... and I just don't think he would tell us he knows the results and can't tell if they were all bad!

    Thus, I confidently conclude that, at this moment, the shorts have the worse risk to deal with... and they should flee quickly in droves when/if they see the ship is sinking, ergo GERN might not be limited to a $1 to $2 pop.... it could be a major three day run built on a real short squeeze...or not...

    Scary for both sides but, I would not want to short this stock in front of this news unless I was prepared to lose big...

    I like the long side, but admittedly GERN is trying to do something that is really really difficult and unlikely unless you just have the right stuff... Good luck to the longs, lets hope GERN has the right stuff!

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    • The nervous actions of many who bought around $2 in the last few sessions caused the recent price slide. Many, including 2 friends of mine who bought 10K shares each, decided to take a 100% return over 3 months instead of taking on the risks of the trials failing.

      I stayed in, just like those who bought in the last few days, expecting the trials to show very good promise and justify a move into Phase III trials. GERN will move back towards $5 and long term investors will again hang on for either a buyout or favorable Phase III results and FDA approval another 18 months. GLTL's.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • We are getting our gambler's fix.

    • I'm encouraged that for the two trials to continue they had to have at least 2 clinical improvements (CI) within the initial cohorts, which they did.
      In addition they started a new trial arm with weekly dosing, which could be read as a last gasp effort, or building on earlier positive results and looking for a knockout.
      The trial started October 2012 with primary finish date of March 2014, with 29 total patients.
      So plenty of time and patients have gone through treatment to have a good amount of data.
      A very big plus is the data was given an oral presentation slot at ASH, which indicates it is significant and I can't believe significant in a "it doesn't work" kind of way.

      • 1 Reply to rx7171
      • excellent post rx and bearcatas. I agree. There is one other alternative to what could happen in 45 minutes or so --- nothing. The data might be good so as to not lose stock value but not good enough to kick it up until Ash or until Phase III produces results good or bad. That's what makes the stock market so exciting to play of course -- especially these biotechs. Go Geron you little b.....d.

    • excellent post!! I got a lot at stake! Hope are dd pays off!
      gl

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I was wondering if anyone has EVER seen a REAL short squeeze?

      If so, what stock, when and how do you know it was a short squeeze???

    • Hear, hear. Good summary of where we stand at this moment in time.
      I would add that the abstract was selected for oral presentation, so the reviewers at ASH found that the results stood out beyond what would be more appropriate for a poster. This alone speaks volumes.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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