Every day thousands of papers are published in various scientific
fields. Rarely if ever are the results duplicated or even checked
through carefully. Usually to have something published it must
have some interest to some people(the article in question clearly
does) and not fly in the face of facts which are widely known(it
doesn't) Whether or not the experiment can be dublicated or
whether or not it is actually useful for anything is really not
the concern of the publisher. That is the concern of all the
scientists who will try to dublicate the experiment and then
publish their own results which are then discussed and so froth.
This method of scientific inquiry is of course fairly slow but
very effecient. It has after all brought us evrything from
aspirin to supercomputers. Plasting ones research all over the
media flies in the face of this tried and true method. What makes
any of you think that you or 20/20 has any clue as to the
merrits of this research when any serious scientist knows that
he doesn't have a clue until all the facts are in.
For the record I have published several papers in
astro-physics and some of them definetly had more merrit than
Interesting fact: Papers on cold fusion are still
published every month. Would you invest in that?
this research when any serious scientist knows that
There has been a great deal EXPECTED from this stock, but what ACTUAL product(s) does it have right NOW?? Or will have in 2,3, 4, or even 5 years?? I suspect none. The 20/20 report was clear, there would be no movement in this as a PRACTICAL application for 5-10 years minimum.
I do expect a quick pop up on Tuesday. I'm personally looking at Feb puts to make a quick profit. This stock will be a good one in years to come, but right now, the name of the game is profits, even a small one. And that just isn't going to happen for some time. IMHO.
By the way, thank you to all the previous quality posts. Some message boards here on Yahoo have nothing but crap on them. Thanks for the fine posts.
PS Go SEEK!!! Gotta love that one!!
I did a quick literature search on telomerase...and it is not balck and white...there are "knock out "strains of mice that have no telomerase...at all... that have no lifespan differences, or differences in there germ line over generations...so while telomerase seems to have some effects in the GERON system... it might not be generalizable (at least from an aging/cancer cure standpoint)...
>>>Why would someone short sell this stock which has downward price possibility of say may be $3 the most as compared to unlimited upside possibility. <<<
I'll bet you can't name one stock that has gone to infinity. $3/share is almost 50% return on equity, and I'm willing to bet the stock will fall that much before it begins a rise, if any.
First of all I would like to thank many of the very sharp and brilliant investors who have expressed their very intellectual views here about Geron and its incredible research.
Geron's coverage on 20/20 was extrememly wonderful. Geron's significant achievement was discussed in a very honorable fashion. Geron's name was mentioned many many times during the report and some of the company labs and employees were shown too.
Geron has major investments from very visionary doctors and businessmens. Many investors like myself who visualize the enormous potential have also invested or would invest in its stock. It was also mentioned that the achievement is a major breakthrough in medical science history with phenomenal potential in terms of applications and markets.
Geron has very talented employee base with promising deals with leading pharmaceuticals companies for its other research efforts.
I wouldn't be surprised if sonner or later this company would get bought out by major pharmaceutical company for hefty price.
Geron's discovery is a great achievement in the mankind.
Millions of people around USA and the world now know about this after the 20/20 report and coverage in almost every newspaper and thousands of magazine around the globe. Investors with a vision would figure out the phenomenal opportunity and would flock to invest in Geron Corp. which holds very promising and exciting future.
Why would someone short sell this stock which has downward price possibility of say may be $3 the most as compared to unlimited upside possibility. I am sure that all the Millions of short sold stocks would be covered soon as short sellers have great risk....u have to go with the wave and the wave I think would be UP..UP...UP....UP.....UP......UP.......UP........UP.........UP
I strongly see this as an opportunity I visualized couple years ago when Internet was new and emerging....still exploding.
Geron provides the same for investors with a far vision.
I recorded the 20/20 and have watched few times.....If someone wants to get the video, ABC has a 800 number.
A loaded Millionare friend of my wants to invest some of his money into a good company with long term investment objective and I think he is buying Geron Stocks on Tuesday.
Well.....I think that massive media coverage has leaded Millions of people aware of Geron and as such I won't be surprised if Geron's stock opens at around $17-18 on Tuesday depending on the market sentiment.
I've been following GERN for the past few weeks and like the new developments that have some out of research. I still struggle with the finances on this one. When will they actually start making money? The research relevations are great and will move the stock up in the short term. Eventually, money must be made and put to the bottom line or the stock will fall right back down.
Who has some insight on the NUMBERS?
There are only two factual issues:
1. There is a POSSIBILITY that GERN research will be effective in LEADING to applications in cell aging and/or cancer (i.e., that science will be advanced in these areas) or
2. There is NO POSSIBILITY of the above.
I am in the #1 school of thought. I appreciate the science, the research, and the effort. It could be very promising. I cannot understand anyone who dogmatically says that there is "no possibility" that science with be advanced in these areas - it is such a stupid conclusion because there is no way we can determine what new research will develop.
I am long the stock as an investor because it is clear that any new development will spike the stock up. The media will
follow this story very closely because there is a high level of public interest in this research. This is a story that can stay on
the front pages for the next five years or more with every test and development reported and analyzed. Also other researchers in
other laboratories will be working with this research and they in turn will have a high level of notoriety. In the meantime, I
expect GERON will license its proprietary technology (its cloned gene or other research) - those anticipated agreements will give
credibility to the company and its research and will generate additional publicity. The news will favor the long side of the stock even
with my premise that all that is ahead is the "possibility" of applications in cell aging and cancer research.
I do not believe that anyone can consistently make money in this volitle situation by timing their buys & sells. Once or twice, yes. But not consistently. The best stock strategy is to try to buy it on a dip, average up or down, and hold for the long term. If there are new applications, regardless of how small, there is no top to this stock. The risk for me is about 14 points. I like the odds - no top vs a 14 point risk. In the meantime, I like having an excuse to follow this research.
I am not in any of the sciences - I am a tax attorney who spends his days representing taxpayers who are abused by the IRS - I like to help the underdogs beat the IRS at its own game. I like Geron because it appears to be an underdog against a large part of the scientific cellular research industry. I am enjoying this battle. More fun than the Superbowl.
Schmoople, thanks for a very good and unbiased post. In your post you said, and I quote:
>>I am impressed with some of the basic science data generated by this company.
However, their is a huge difference between tissue culture work which they are
touting and application to a complete organism (e.g. humans).
One does not simply give a pill or elixir which will implant the gene into every cell in
your body. If this was so other identified and sequenced genes would have been
widely administered by now for a variety of ailments<<
I couldn't agree with you more. On the 20/20 program, when I heard the researcher (who is also an investor in Geron) from U. of Michigan endorsed the idea of a pill, it reinforced my belief that the company was out doing a great hyping job. In my experience, a hyped stock is always an excellent short. But a word of caution, although a hyped stock will tumble back to earth, one must have the stomach and pocket to ride the roller coaster.
I just looked in on this board tonight after hearing about it on another site. Read through some of the postings and the company's releases.
I have a lot of experience in the medical research and clinical spheres, having performed and published out of Columbia Univ. Institute of Cancer Research (in cell and molecular biology with an emphasis on transfection and transformation of normal cells to malignant cells.)
I am impressed with some of the basic science data generated by this company. However, their is a huge difference between tissue culture work which they are touting and application to a complete organism (e.g. humans).
One does not simply give a pill or elixir which will implant the gene into every cell in your body. If this was so other identified and sequenced genes would have been widely administered by now for a variety of ailments. In addition, although in their tissue culture work, they do not see preliminary evidence of malignant transformation of cells (cancer) more complex and detailed studies to rule this out have not been done in tissue culture much less animal models.
The possibility to develop cancer screening tools and perhaps eventually therapies seems much more likely and may still make them a boatload of dough someday down the road.
Also everyone needs to understand that when you mess with the fundamental machinery in a whole organism(your body) there could potentially be harrowing consequences.
For the record:
I am NOT short this stock though I'm sure some may think so.(heck I would not know how to)
I do think if they can develop marketable and solid cancer detection products the market will be huge.
Just my two cents from someone with lots more scientific and medical knowledge than some TV talking heads.
My advice would be to ride it up if the momentary press helps but realize the likelihood of big bucks rolling into the company from product and not investors alone anytime soon is pretty slight. As always, be careful and get all the info you can. Do not relie on what I or anyone says alone (including the company)
I do not own this stock and do not care what it does.
I drew the analogy to cold fusion only in the context of press coverage. We all know cold fusion turned out to be a joke.
But high Tc superconductivity is indeed the most significant scientific breakthrough since Einstein's relativity theory. Go back
eleven years from the time high Tc superconductivity was first discovered, then review the worldwide development and pursuit of the
subject up until today, you'll perhaps get a better and more realistic view point on Geron's single paper. BTW, since Dr. Chu et
al.'s first paper, there have been thousands of papers on the subject by top notch researchers all around the world.
I'll short GERN again next week. No doubt about that. Thank you 20/20.