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Hugoton Royalty Trust Message Board

  • mja053 mja053 Jan 9, 2006 2:04 PM Flag

    Be careful

    I bought at $19 and sold at $37 (missing the top). Gas and oil are no longer moving in sync. Some very good analysts believe that NG is starting a multi month correction. If $32 doen't hold, it will be a major sell signal.

    Over the years HGT has been very good to me; I plan to get in again at a much lower price.

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    • Like I said:
      "A serious drawdown will not save you.
      The build season is knocking on the door."

      Finally a big winter storm, and what does NG do?
      it goes down.
      Told you a storm won't save you.
      NG is finished.
      In 5 months 4 months HGT will be announcing ten cent distributions. NG is finished.
      "

    • Your position lost 4 % on paper today.
      I was a five year holder too.
      I am NOT a trader, but I am NOT going to sit and watch my position evaporate when the warning signs are so obvious.

      NG drawdown only 38 today. Another anemic drawdown for February.
      Ironic that 38 is the same percent that NG storage is higher than the 5 year average.
      And this is happening WITH the hurricane shutting in significant production during the winter.
      Can you imagine where NG storage would be without the hurricane?
      If you equate investing with waiting for a hurricane, you are no Warren Buffet.
      When the traders realize that we are not going to invade Iran anytime soon, oil will fall, and NG will go back to $ 5 mcf or less.
      I imagine that since you have done well with HGT and you are in love with it, and next month's distribution will be even higher, I will have to be here to tell you that the whole way down. Hope you don't take it personally, and hope you do well with your other investments.

    • Stick a fork in it.
      Natural gas is done.

    • What the hell happened at 2 pm today, I wasn't home. Sunk like a brick.

    • What does Buffet have to do with it? Everything, as his buy and hold approach investment strategy built wealth over the years. Evidently, you are a trader and do not adhere to this strategy. That is fine, but short term fluctuations in price do not alter the over all long term demand for natural gas in the areas of residential, industrial, and electric generation.
      Yes, I may lose an opportunity to sell in the next 3 months. However, that will not be the last opportunity. In the coming years there will always be hurricanes, cold weather, global economic expansion, etc. that will contribute to spikes in prices.
      Good luck with your trades.

    • I don't know what Warren Buffet has to do with HGT.
      Guess what. You can hold a stock for 5 years and make a mint, lose your shirt, end up in dead money, amke a little bit, lose a little bit.
      It is all irrelevant to the future direction of the stock. Check back in 3 months - you are going to lose a great opportunity to sell.

    • "A serious drawdown will not save you"

      I bought 5 years ago. My cost basis is $13.35. I'm holding 1000 shares, and have received over $8500 in royalty distributions. In a couple of years the distributions will have covered my initial investment. If Warren Buffet had listened to you he'd had only made thousands instead of billions. Over and out.

    • A serious drawdown will not save you.
      The build season is knocking on the door.

      The only thing propping up NG is Iran.
      This stock is going to get hammered to the low 30's.
      Distributions are going back to the teens.

      All we need is a little patientce

    • Come on weak hands, it's gonna be cold the next couple of weeks and we're gonna have a serious drawdown!

    • You should look at the storage charts. I owned HGT for over 5 years before I sold. This is a big bubble waiting to burst. The chart looks horrible

      http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html

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