Henry Hub settled at $ 5.28 yesterday. That means HGT would be realizing less than $ 5 on its NG if the pricing holds up. At that rate a future distribution may be only around 13 cents. But at least that drop in the distribution will be cushioned by the coming drop this month.
NG storage - surplus reduced from only 30 % to 29 %, slowing the trend of larger decreases. If the trend continues I will have to downgrade HGT.
If dist falls to 0.13, how low would share price drop? 21 or so? The build in NG surplus is very logical; "they" have built in a hurricane buffer. Could have been a real energy emergency had the early winter been cold last year; suppliers have done what they needed to to prevent that. Unfortunately, the extreme surplus will have to drop NG prices in near term. But with declining supplies, longer term NG prices will rise. I think in 5 years I will be very happy to have held HGT and the others, collecting the disti, and eventually sitting on a good share appreciation.
Assuming that future NG storage injections, up to the draw season, are in-line with typical injections, I would not expect either the share price or the NG price to drop that much further. If the trend of reducing the surplus is reversed for an extended period of time, then there will be near term pressure on the stock price.