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Hugoton Royalty Trust Message Board

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  • s.eranger@sbcglobal.net s.eranger Jan 9, 2012 7:15 PM Flag

    Why is this getting slaughtered?

    To me, there almost has to be something we're missing, as individual investors. If you sell here, it's like giving it away, but that's what I thought last week at $19.00

    There is no support, so I'm at a loss.

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    • I'm amazed when I see comments like this. Do you own this and yet not know that it is pretty much a pure play on NG prices? Once it starts sinking in that NG prices might not turnaround any time soon, surely the fairly low yield will have to increase. That combined with a still sinking distribution could mean quite a bit more downside. Look at 2008-9 (both distribution history and unit price), the last time when NG prices were this low at this time of year for a guide as to what you can expect. I'm expecting at least $15 and it could go much lower if NG shows no sign of turning around.
      SJT and HGT are both pure dry gas plays. Some other trusts, while NG heavy, are much more wet gas. CRT, for example still gets around $7 for their gas (inclusive of liquids) and PBT gets around $6 too if I remember correct (you can see it in their distribution announcements). That is due to the liquids content which HGT and SJT don't have.

 
HGT
10.50+0.23(+2.24%)Jul 22 4:01 PMEDT

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