Assuming nat gas under $3 and if HGT loses the legal proceedings in full, there will be no dividends for 5 years plus, the stock would quickly be back to $5. The yield on this trust has usually averaged under 5% given the volatile nature of the commodity, so in a best case scenario with the legal case and assuming they can double the dividend to 12 cents a quarter, the upside is $12.
Given where the stock is trading right now - the market is putting an almost 50% probability that HGT wins the legal case. I think the odds are much closer to 20-25% - which brings us to $6.75
Knowing nothing else, i would not want to own this until it hits 7
Neilfe99, I think it has already been stated that if the decision is against HGT, the repayment for most of the fields will be 10-16 months and longer for the remaining fields.There will always be some dividends since not all of the fields are involved in the lawsuit ( my understanding only).