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Hugoton Royalty Trust Message Board

  • cpb38 cpb38 Jun 5, 2013 12:35 AM Flag

    This turkey's falling

    I can see sub-$8 in a month

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    • Closing price on June 5 (the day of your post): $8.88
      Closing price on July 5 ("in a month"): $8.62
      Current price (July 19): $9.28 (up 4.5% since your prediction).
      From today's press release re: dividend: "Underlying gas sales volumes attributable to the current month distribution were primarily produced in May.

      Underlying Gas Sales
      Volumes (Mcf) (a) Average Gas
      Total Daily Price per Mcf
      ------------ -------- -------------
      Current Month Distribution 1,602,000 52,000 $4.43
      Prior Month Distribution 1,541,000 51,000 $4.23 "

      I hope you didn't go short/ write puts based on your prediction.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to yardbird2314
      • Thanks for your concern about me :). I did not short or buy any puts.
        If you see some of my other posts on this board, you will that I sold part of my position at 9.80+. I had sold the rest of my position in the high 9's, so that puts me ahead.
        Yes I was wrong about the 1 month direction of HGT. They had some recovery of production and realized higher NG prices. Unfortunately for HGT shareholders because of declining production this stock will underperform other NG stocks. Compare the 1 month chart for HGT against XCO for example.
        Also, come back in five years when HGT's production is much lower and you will be lucky to be getting a nickel a month in distributions.

    • The stock is tracking down with the drop in natural gas prices already 4.3% today, kind of expected.

2.24-0.04(-1.75%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT