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Hugoton Royalty Trust Message Board

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Nov 19, 2013 9:27 AM Flag

    Why Are People Focused on Production and Nat Gas...

    when an arbitration hearing just concluded that will dictate where this stock goes for the next year

    We can have $5 nat gas but if we have a negative ruling, this stock is back to 6

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    • No, no, and then no again! Even the WORST POSSIBLE arbitration outcome has a PV impact of about 60 cents, and that is more than priced in.

      A 20% move in NG price increases the PV of the units by about $3. So which one do you think is more important?

      • 1 Reply to sellmortimer
      • i wish you were correct as i am long...Seems like the worst case scenario - they wont pay dividends for a year - which is 75 cents at present rates...Double factor in some funds/individuals that wont hold non-divvy stocks - and we can easily get down to $6

        If your conjecture is correct and worst case is factored in - this stock would fly with even a modest positive outcome, and as i have mentioned before, a fully positive outcome, where prior penalties are reversed, can get this stock to $10

        I expect the arbitration decision to be announced before month end - which would have the effect of moving the stock either up $2-$3 or down $1+....So was looking for color from other investors on what they have heard about the panel

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